In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 32's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.
Havertz tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 32 with a score of 12.9. The German international took two shots in the box (SiB), both of which were classified as BC and also created two BC for his teammates. Díaz continues to go under the radar as an FPL option, the 27-year-old took six SiB, more than any other player over the weekend and had three BC involvements (two BC, one BC created) enroute to an xFPL score of 11.3. De Bruyne was top for BC created (three) and the Belgian also scored two goals from his three shots, none of which were classified as a BC which meant a relatively low xFPL score of 9.4. Spurs continued to look leaky in defence, they afforded Wood three BC, more than any other player. The New Zealand international could onoly convert one of these attempts and registered an xFPL score of 7.4. Salah captainers will feel a tad unlucky with just an eight point FPL return, the Egyptian King took four SiB and created three and should have had more returns as his xFPL score of 10.9 indicates.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Watkins tops the transfers in ahead of Gameweek 33 with nearly 70,000 FPL managers bringing him in already. Palmer, De Bruyne and Garnacho have also seen similar numbers while it is perhaps surprising to see Foden in fourth after missing out completely in Gameweek 32. The trio of D. Luiz, Bowen and Areola are either unavailable or doubts going into Gameweek 33 which explains why they are the three top transfers out. In defence, Aït-Nouri is by far the most popular option with the Algerian internatioanl featuring in four of the top 10 defender transfer combinations with the likes of Porro, Doughty and Bradley making way. In midfield, the transfers are more scattered with Havertz and Garnacho featuring in six of the top 10 midfielder transfer combinations with Son, D. Luiz, Bowen and Maddison being sold. It is a similar case with forwards, FPL managers are buying as well as selling Watkins with Haaland and Darwin the main beneficiaries.
Darwin and Diaz both look like great options ahead of Liverpool's Double Gameweek 34 and as the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, over the last eight Gameweeks the winger has outscored the forward by 12 FPL points but has played significantly more minutes (393 vs 628).
As the Average Statistic per 90 numbers show, Darwin has significantly more goal threat with higher 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.74 vs 0.69), shots (5.27), shots on target (SoT) (1.60 vs 1.00) and SiB (4.58 vs 3.73). In terms of creativity, the Colombian international has the edge with more attempted assists (0.92 vs 2.58) and BC created (0.23 vs 0.57).
Both look like great picks and with Jota likely to be fit by the time Gameweek 34 rolls around, it remains to be seen who plays more minutes in the Double.
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