In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 35's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.
B. Fernandes tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 35 so far, with a score of 10.8. The Portuguese international created more chances than any other player (nine) and was also top for 'big chances' (BC) created (four). Popular captaincy option Palmer took six shots, but just one of these tested the opposition goalkeeper. The 21-year-old also created three chances and notched an xFPL score of 6.5. Antony and Gakpo were top for shots with the latter managing more shots in the box (SiB) (five vs eight). However, none of Gakpo's attempts were classified as BC while Antony managed four, this meant that the Dutchman registered an xFPL score of just 5.1 compared to 10.0 for the Brazilian. Isak continued to cement his position as the forward to own, the Swedish international took four SiB, two of which were BC and also attempted two assists en route to an xFPL score of 10.4.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Isak tops the transfers in with De Bruyne, Foden, Gordon and Gvardiol close behind. It is perhaps surprising to see Foden in the ‘top three’ after he missed out entirely in Gameweek 35, but his absence is only thought to be due to illness and he should be available for Gameweek 36. FPL managers seem to have lost faith in Liverpool, with Salah and Darwin the top transfers out. Haaland is also the fourth most sold player at the time of writing, however, following his goal off the bench against Forest, many FPL managers will be bringing the Norwegian international back in. Up top, most of the traffic seems to be headed towards Isak with the Swedish international taking up six of the ‘top 10‘ forward transfer combinations. In midfield, five of the ’top 10‘ combinations involve selling Salah with De Bruyne, Foden, Gordon and B. Fernandes coming in. In defence, the combinations are more scattered with Walker and Gvardiol the main beneficiaries.
B. Fernandes and De Bruyne both look like outstanding options ahead of their doubles in Gameweek 37 but with midfield spots at a premium, most FPL managers can only accomodate one. As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, over the last four Gameweeks B. Fernandes (54) has outscored De Bruyne (40), by a margin of 14 FPL points, but the Portuguese international has played more minutes (450 vs 332).
As the statistics above show, when it comes to goal threat B. Fernandes is significantly ahead with 3.40 'Expected Goals' (xG) compared to just 0.71 for De Bruyne. However, this number is inflated by penalty duties, which the Belgian international does not have. In terms of shots in the box (SiB), they are quite similar (10 vs eight), but B. Fernandes' shots are of better quality.
Looking at the creativity numbers, B. Fernandes has attempted more assists (22 vs 14) but the 'Expected Assists' (xA) (3.05 vs 3.10) are quite similar with De Bruyne creating better quality chances. Both players look like excellent picks, but with Foden perhaps matching De Bruyne's output and with quality options in Man. City's defence such as Walker and Gvardiol, B. Fernandes may just edge it.
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