Finding the best FPL differentials can be one of the quickest ways to gain an early advantage in Fantasy Premier League.
Popular players naturally dominate Gameweek 1 drafts, but looking beyond the template can uncover low-owned players with strong underlying numbers, favourable fixtures and significant points potential.
At the time of writing, all five players in this list are owned by fewer than 10% of FPL managers.
Using the Predicted Points & Stats tool, we have ranked five standout differentials based on their projected points across the opening six Gameweeks.
Our powerful predictive algorithm uses machine learning to project future FPL returns, helping identify players who may be going under the radar.
So, who are the best FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 1?
A lot of FPL managers considering Manchester United's defence are currently leaning towards the cheaper £4.5m Luke Shaw, but could Maguire justify the extra £0.5m?
Using the Opta Comparison Tool, neither player showed major attacking threat last season, but Maguire was superior across every attacking metric per 90 minutes.
More importantly, according to the Opta Stats Sandbox tool, Maguire averaged 8.21 DEFCON per 90 compared with Shaw's 6.24. With defensive contributions now offering another route to FPL points, that difference could be significant.
Maguire also produced a higher baseline BPS, strengthening his potential for bonus points.
So while Shaw saves £0.5m, Maguire's numbers suggest more potential for FPL points across every key area — attacking returns, DEFCON and bonus points.
This perhaps explains why Maguire has made it into James Cooper's latest draft.
The 7× Top 10k Elite Team Reveals manager currently has the Manchester United defender lining up alongside Mosquera and Vuskovic in a back three.
Cooper is known for taking a data-driven approach to his FPL picks, so Maguire's stronger underlying numbers clearly make him an interesting option.
You can see his full Gameweek 1 squad over on the Elite XI: Team Reveal tool.
United start with Hull away and Ipswich at home, with Maguire projected to score 4.2 points in both Gameweeks. The fixtures become tougher afterwards, but he could be an overlooked alternative to the more popular Shaw.
Tavernier's underlying numbers make his low ownership particularly interesting.
The Bournemouth midfielder scored seven goals and provided four FPL assists last season, while recording 8.63 xG and 6.27 xA. Those numbers suggest he was unfortunate not to register even more FPL returns.
As shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, Tavernier was Bournemouth's second-highest FPL points scorer with 137 points. He was also second only to Kroupi Jr. for goals, ranked third for assists and recorded the club's second-most bonus points with 14.
There is another major reason to keep an eye on him.
Tavernier is currently in the Gameweek 1 draft of elite manager Tom Dollimore, one of the most accomplished managers featured in our Elite Team Reveals. That backing alone should make FPL managers take notice.
There is, however, one obvious problem: Manchester City away in Gameweek 1. That fixture is likely to be one of the main reasons more managers have not taken the plunge.
His fixtures improve immediately afterwards. Everton at home brings a 4.2-point projection in GW2, while Brentford at home in Gameweek 4 produces another healthy 4.1.
Could you select Tavernier and bench him against City? Possibly. But at £6.0m, some managers may instead prefer to monitor him and consider an early transfer once the fixtures improve.
Schade offers perhaps the most eye-catching goal threat of the five players on this list.
He scored eight goals and registered five FPL assists last season, but his underlying numbers suggest there could have been even more.
The Brentford midfielder accumulated 12.19 xG, 57 shots and 24 efforts on target across the campaign.
His opening fixture against Spurs is also his highest projection of the first six Gameweeks, at 4.4 predicted points.
That might make it seem surprising to see him on the bench in Mark Mansfield's latest draft. The 7× Top 10k manager is, however, considering an early Bench Boost, which explains the stronger-than-usual bench.
He has not locked the chip in yet, but Dan Bennett, Copenhagen Wednesday and Matt Corbidge currently have the Bench Boost activated for Gameweek 1. Between them, they have a huge 22 Top 10k finishes.
You can check out their latest Bench Boost drafts on the Elite XI: Team Reveal tool.
Sarr could be one of the higher-upside options on this list.
Despite playing only 28 games last season, the Palace midfielder scored nine goals and accumulated 11.92 xG.
Palace's opening schedule is mixed. Everton away is followed by the difficult prospect of Manchester City at home, before matches against Fulham, Ipswich, Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
It is Ipswich at home in Gameweek 4 that particularly stands out. Fix's machine-learning algorithm projects Sarr to return 4.9 points, the highest single-Gameweek prediction of any midfielder on this list.
Looking at the Predicted Points & Stats tool for midfielders priced at £6.5m or less, only Enzo Le Fée (24.9) is projected to score more across the opening six Gameweeks.
Le Fée narrowly missed out on this list due to his 12.9% ownership, although he is still worth considering. He is, however, currently carrying a knock.
It highlights just how much value there could be in the £6.0m–£6.5m midfield bracket this season.
At £6.5m and owned by fewer than 10% of managers, Sarr could provide FPL managers with a genuine alternative to the heavily selected midfield template.
Perhaps the biggest surprise on the list is Tarkowski.
At £6.0m, his price is likely to be putting plenty of FPL managers off. Spending that much on an Everton defender is a significant commitment when cheaper options are available elsewhere.
But the numbers are difficult to ignore.
Tarkowski produced 170 FPL points last season, making him the fifth-highest scoring defender, while recording 11 clean sheets, two goals, three assists and 12 bonus points.
His defensive numbers were even more impressive. The centre-back accumulated a huge 377 DEFCON, the second-most among defenders, averaging 10.19 per game.
That combination of secure minutes, clean-sheet potential and defensive contributions makes him extremely attractive to the Fix algorithm.
Everton also sit top of the Fixture Planner for defensive fixture difficulty across the opening six Gameweeks, so suddenly his inclusion does not seem quite so surprising.
He also currently makes the Expert Team Reveal in the Big Data: Team Reveal tool — a squad built using aggregated public Rate My Team data from the current highest-ranked FPL managers.
That is another strong sign of his appeal, although it is worth noting that the team updates every hour, so selections can change as new manager data comes in.
Remarkably, Tarkowski is projected to score at least 4.3 points in every one of the opening six Gameweeks.
For managers prepared to invest more heavily in defence, Tarkowski could be one of the most overlooked FPL differentials for Gameweek 1.
All five players are owned by fewer than 10% of FPL managers at the time of writing, but they offer very different routes to points.
Maguire provides an alternative to the cheaper Shaw, while Tavernier has excellent underlying numbers and the backing of elite manager Tom Dollimore.
Schade and Sarr offer considerably more attacking upside, with both capable of scoring goals in favourable fixtures.
But according to Fantasy Football Fix's Predicted Points & Stats tool, it is Tarkowski who leads the way.
Ownership can change quickly before the Gameweek 1 deadline, so keep checking the latest numbers alongside Predicted Points, Elite Team Revealsand the Opta Stats Sandbox before locking in your final Fantasy Premier League squad.
Unlock live Elite Team Reveals, AI transfer recommendations and all our Opta-powered planning tools with Premium Plus.
Join 89% of members who won their main Mini-league last season.
Get 50% offAlready a Premium user? Login here
© fantasyfootballfix 2024 | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
