GW6 was a bit of a whirlwind: Ronaldo blanked and didn’t take a 90^th minute penalty, Luke Shaw picked up an injury, Michail Antonio picked up a late winner along with 3 bonus points, Arsenal destroyed Spurs, and Brentford continued to prove that they can give anyone a good game. It looks like this could be an interesting week for a wildcard, so we have a lot of questions and answers to look into!

·        Is Romelu Lukaku “essential”?

·        Is the Brentford double up viable?

·        Is Ismaila Sarr a trap?

·        Should you bench City defenders vs Liverpool (A)?

·        Is Abdoulaye Doucouré the best midfielder under £6m?

Is Romelu Lukaku “essential”?

Chelsea will be looking to bounce back from a poor result at home to Manchester City via a very favourable run of fixtures between GW7 & GW12. It could be argued that Romelu Lukaku is the obvious set and forget captain for the next 6 weeks, the main reason being that Big Rom has often been referred to as a flat track bully, he will often perform far better against the weaker sides than the bigger teams. 

Chelsea’s fixtures between GW7-12 using FixtureAnalyser

Analysing Lukaku’s seasons (using Custom Stats Builder) between 2015 & 2019 for Everton and Manchester United, we are able to evaluate if the flat track bully label is fair. In 2015/16 for Everton, Lukaku accumulated 89% of his xG and 95% of his xA against the sides outside of the “Top 6,” despite only playing 66% of his minutes against them. This trend continues in the next 3 seasons as well, with 82.91%, 88.65% & 74.02% xG in 70% of minutes.

Whether it is fair or not to call him a flat track bully (as most attackers will perform better vs worse opposition), Lukaku definitely has a great chance to score a lot of points in the next 5 gameweeks. He'll be facing sides who will likely be in and around the relegation scrap come the end of the season. Therefore, I am going to say that it is fact that Lukaku is essential over the next few months, maybe even more so than Ronaldo, who has a really tough run of games. 

Is the Brentford double up viable?

Brentford definitely picked up the best result of the weekend. Not only did they manage to draw 3-3 with Liverpool, they also won the xG battle and more than deserved the result. The Bees have been a joy to watch so far, especially in the last 2 weeks vs Wolves and Liverpool. With fantastic value in every position, from the likes of Raya (£4.6m), Henry (£4.5m), Mbeumo (£5.5m), and Toney (£6.3m), can we trust the double/triple up of assets from a team like Brentford? We saw a similar dilemma reap huge rewards last season in Leeds United, where many managers owned Bamford, Raphinha, and Dallas at the same time during good fixture swings. 

I believe that we have already seen that we can trust the Brentford defence. Not only did they have the lowest xGC in the Championship last season, but they have also started very strongly in a back 5 system this season. Despite having fixtures against Arsenal and Liverpool in the opening 6 weeks, along with tough trips to Villa, Palace and Wolves, Brentford have the 4^th lowest xGC in the division. 

The Brentford strike force are also proving that they have the potential to be fantastic value too! Ivan Toney has been at the forefront of everything that Brentford have created so far this season and is playing a really important creative role. Which we didn’t see so much of last season, as he assisted a lot of goals and created chances but not to this degree. Toney currently has the 2^nd highest xA in the league, behind only Bruno Fernandes. Given that some chances will come his way eventually, and he is also taking penalties, £6.3m looks like a bargain. An even bigger bargain is Bryan Mbuemo, who is priced at £5.5m and has the 5^th highest xG among midfielders so far this season. 

Ivan Toney creative stats in the Premier League 21/22 usingOpta Stats Sandbox

I truly believe there will come a point in the season where the average player in the top 100k will own 2+ Brentford players, so this for me is certainly a fact!

Is Ismaila Sarr a trap?

Sarr has started the season in the way that many expected. He is clearly the main outlet for Watford attacks and has become the talisman during his time away from the Premier League. Sarr has started the season with 4 goals in his opening 6 fixtures, and he also has twice as many points as any of the Watford players apart from Dennis, who he still outscores by 70%. 

Ismaila Sarr stats 21/22 using Opta Stats Sandbox

At the time of writing this article, Sarr has 240,000 transfers in which is the most of any player. This is unsurprising given that he has the 3^rd highest score with regards to “form,” averaging 8.7 points across the last 3 GW’s whilst being priced at only £6.3m. Watford are also about to face a very favourable opponent in Leeds United, who are without several key defenders.

My major worry with Watford is the fixture list after they face Leeds (A). The Hornets face 7 of last season’s top 10 between GW8-15 in only 8 games. The only “good” fixture on paper being Southampton, who have only conceded 1 goal in their last 3 fixtures vs West Ham, Manchester City, and Wolves. I personally won’t be looking to own Sarr for this run, as Watford are unlikely to create an abundance of chances in comparison to teams with favourable runs, such as Wolves, Leeds, Brentford, and Southampton. 

Watford’s fixtures between GW8-15 using FixtureAnalyser

I am going to say that it is clearly fixtion that Sarr is a trap, as he has performed incredibly well so far as Watford’s star man. However, I would avoid him for the next few months as the fixtures aren’t great.

Should you bench City defenders vs Liverpool (A)?

Liverpool have started the season with the highest xG in the league, averaging 2.6 expected goals per game. So the idea of benching a City defender wouldn’t be a terrible idea if you have the likes of Ben White (vs BHA), Duffy (vs ARS), or Williams (vs BUR) on the bench.

However, Manchester City were absolutely phenomenal against Chelsea last weekend. For the first time since Fix started noting down stats, Chelsea failed to produce a shot on target at Stamford Bridge. Ignoring the 0.23 xGC, no shots on target allowed at Stamford Bridge is an outstanding statistic that we may not see again for another 10+ years. The defensive unit of Walker, Dias, Laporte, and Cancelo has the potential to be one of the best that we’ve seen in Premier League history, with the likes of Stones, Ake, and Zinchenko on the bench too. 

Manchester City vs Chelsea stats using Match Stats

Manchester City were not only fantastic vs Chelsea, as they also have the best xGC in the league by quite some distance. City have kept 5 clean sheets in a row, giving up an xGC over the season of 2.6, with Everton in 2^nd place with 4.9 conceded. As much as Liverpool have one of the most formidable attacks in Europe, Manchester City probably have an even more impressive defence. Therefore, I am saying that it is fixtion that City defenders should be getting benched in GW7.

Premier League xGC in 21/22 using Opta Stats Sandbox

Is Abdoulaye Doucouré the best midfielder under £6m?

Doucoure is currently the 9^th highest scoring player in FPL, 4^th among midfielders and 1^st for players below £6m. With 2 goals and 3 assists in the opening 6 fixtures, he appears to be an absolute no brainer to add into your side for the foreseeable. However, Everton did have the best opening 6 fixtures vs SOU (H), LEE (A), BHA (A), BUR (H), AVL (A), and NOR (H), so a purple patch was more likely.

Doucoure has taken up a slightly more attacking role in the Everton side this season under Rafa Benitez, becoming a box to box midfielder, with Allan doing a lot more of his dirty work. Doucoure has 10 touches in the opposition box, 10 shots and 88 passes in the final third in only 6 games compared with 35 touches, 18 shots and 305 final third passes across a whole season last year.

Despite his great start, Doucoure is nowhere near the top of the charts for xG or xA compared to all midfielders priced below £6m. The likes of Gray, Kovacic, Gallagher, Traore, Fornals, and Townsend are ahead of the Frenchman for both statistics. Due to the underlyings, I am going to say that it is definitely fixtion that he’s the best midfielder for under £6m, and he is purely just having a good run of form.

xG/xA stats for mids priced below £6m using CustomStats Builder