Fix Differentials
12 Aug. 2021
Wow, How quickly has Gameweek 1 comes around? My name is Rob and I'm extremely excited to be given the opportunity to write regularly for fantasyfootballfix.com. As a brief overview of my background, I have been around the FPL twitter community for three years, finishing inside the top 10k in the 2019/20 season. I play multiple fantasy games with two consecutive top 100 finishes in Sky Fantasy Football, as well as finishing 12th in the first season of Gaffr - the fantasy game for the Championship. Truthfully, my eyes have only really been opened to statistics, data and the fantastic tools available through fix over the last few months, and I'm hoping it will have a positive impact on my fantasy results moving forward.
The focus of my blog through fix is going to be around trying to identify differentials that you could select, or transfer into your teams over the course of the season, to give you an edge in your mini-leagues or to try and improve your rank. There has been a lot of talk around 'the template', over the course of this pre-season and quite rightly so, but having the right differentials in your squad could be the factor that determines the success of your personal FPL season. I'm going to give you one player in each position each week - each will be owned by less than 10% of FPL managers at the time of writing.
As we move into the season, I'll look to use live data and tools from fantasyfootballfix.com. This will validate or justify the selections that I've made, and hopefully enable you to get a grasp of the amount of data and information that is at your fingertips. So if you're ready, let's get started.
Goalkeeper: Daniel Bachmann
Team: Watford
Ownership: 2.7%
Aside from last season's star Emiliano Martinez and the popular Brighton goalkeeper Robert Sanchez, it felt to me as if Daniel Bachmann was quite popular - so it was hugely surprising to see that his ownership was under 3% - dwarfed of course by his teammate Ben Foster at £4.0m. However, its still expected that Bachmann will be the starting goalkeeper. That's justified by his stellar form for the Championship's best defence in 2020/21. Bachmann made 23 starts for the Hornets and got 13 clean sheets - a remarkable ratio.
It's very difficult to draw too many comparisons between Bachmann and the popular goalkeepers in the Premier League - obviously the standard of opposition makes that difficult, but the Austrian's save percentage in the Championship of 76.1% stacks up well against Sanchez (71.3%) and isn't too far away from the darling that is Emiliano Martinez at 76.8%.
One factor that we can utilise, however, is the fixtures. Looking at the Fixture Analyser from the start of the season through to the second international break after Gameweek 7, Watford rank 2nd on the fix defensive ticker with none of last season's top 5 to play until Gameweek 8.
Watford's defensive numbers after the appointment of Xisco as manager improved significantly and I don't see them as a team that are going to try and out-attack their opponents. Keeping things tight and attempting to frustrate their opponents and play on the break seems like the natural approach for them to take and that could undoubtedly lead to success for Bachmann and the Watford defence.
Defender: Ricardo Pereira
Team: Leicester
Ownership: 2.3%
When discussing Ricardo Pereira, it feels unfair to consider his data from the 2020/21 season after his horrible ACL injury that denied him a pre-season and meant he was approaching the season from a position of difficulty - and played less than 1000 minutes. I'm happy to put that to the back of my mind.
However, the Ricardo Pereira from the 2 seasons prior to that is a different animal altogether. The last time Pereira played over 3000 minutes was 2018/19, when he had an xFPL pts of 4.77 per 90 minutes. He's undoubtedly a goal threat in full flow, has the potential to play higher up the pitch at times, and he looked much closer to his best in the Community Shield. The upside with Pereira is the threat for attacking returns (5 goals, 8 assists across 2018/19 and 2019/20) and if he can return to that player with a full pre-season, he could be the man being overlooked while people target men like Lucas Digne.
The final factor that swings it? As above, the only team better than Watford for defensive fixtures on the Fixture Analyser for the first 7 gameweeks is Leicester. Man City in GW4 is the thorn in the bed of wonderful fixtures to start the season, and I think Pereira could be worth the gamble if you want to differentiate.
Midfielder: Ilkay Gundogan
Team: Man City
Ownership: 7.6%
Nobody saw the surge in FPL points and popularity for Ilkay Gundogan coming last season. The midfielder who had mainly been known as a deep lying playmaker suddenly jumped out of the shadows and went on a sustained run of FPL dominance that ruined a lot of stubborn manager's seasons, including my own. If I had been into data last season, I'd say there's every chance I would have corrected that mistake - and looking at the data during pre-season has opened my eyes. Could it happen again?
The data suggests that it could happen again - and that's due to the absence of Kevin De Bruyne. The Player Heatmaps tell a slight story - the left side shows Gundogan with De Bruyne on the pitch, while the right side shows Gundogan with KDB not on the pitch. A slightly more forward-thinking version of Ilkay, but its a partial story.
KDB on the pitch with Gundogan (left), Gundogan on the pitch without KDB (right) using Player Heatmaps
Its the numbers that show the enhancement of Gundogan's appeal when De Bruyne is out of the side. A no-brainer, right? The fly in the ointment is potentially Jack Grealish - who might significantly alter the dynamic. Gundogan is firmly in my thoughts until De Bruyne returns to fitness. But is he in yours?
KDB on the pitch with Gundogan (left), Gundogan on the pitch without KDB (right) using Player Heatmaps
Forward: Callum Wilson
Team: Newcastle
Ownership: 7.2%
I know. It's a Newcastle forward. I'm pre-programmed not to target Newcastle players - but there is no doubting that we saw an increase in Newcastle's attacking output in the second half of the season with the introduction of new coach Graeme Jones, but Wilson wasn't around to benefit from that, only playing 578 minutes in the second half of the season. If fit, we know Wilson is talismanic and the appeal of him is enhanced right now as Saint-Maximin is also fit - a rare event for both of Newcastle's key men to be fit at the same time.
An interesting comparison to look at is the comparison between Callum and Danny Ings, who played similar minutes last season. In fact, Wilson scored slightly more FPL points last season from 100 less minutes - and the numbers stack up, with Wilson higher per 90 minutes for xG, A, big chances created and shots in the box.
Wilson (left) stacks up well against Ings (right) per 90 minutes from last season, using Player Heatmaps.
Yes, Ings is moving to a team that theoretically should be better from an attacking perspective than Southampton - but we have no idea how quickly Villa will settle with the loss of Grealish and the myriad of new players. Is there an argument to go with the Newcastle attack (8th on the attack ticker for the first 7 GWs) ahead of the Aston Villa attack (9th).
Which players are you looking at as your differentials? How many players under 10% do you own? I hope you've enjoyed - and good luck with your final tinkering. Make sure you use the fantastic tools on fantasyfootballfix.com to help you make those right decisions.
Rob Pick @rpick86
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