Unlocking the FPL Differential Advantage

In the world of Fantasy Premier League, finding those hidden gems can make all the difference in climbing the ranks. As we kick off the new season, three players stand out as potential game-changers: Kai Havertz, Ivan Toney, and Chris Wood.

With ownership levels below 15%, these players offer managers a differential approach that could set their teams apart from the crowd. Let's delve into why these under-the-radar picks might just be the secret weapons your FPL team needs.

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Kai Havertz (Forward)

Cost: £8.0m

Ownership: 13.7%

Predicted points for first 3 GWs: 12.9

First 3 fixtures: WOL (H), AVL (A), BHA (H)

Arsenal's Kai Havertz hit the ground running in his new role as a forward. Having played 37 games (2,640 minutes) last season, Havertz accumulated an impressive 180 FPL points. The German international found the back of the net 13 times, slightly overperforming his xG of 11.92. His creativity shone through with 10 assists, significantly outperforming his xA of 5.81. Havertz's ability to create big chances (7) and his total of 69 shots (28 on target) demonstrate his attacking threat.

Havertz returned an impressive 4.9 FPL points per game for Arsenal in the 2023/24 season, as shown in the Opta Player Heatmaps tool.

Havertz's recent form has been nothing short of electrifying. His movement off the ball and link-up play have been crucial to Arsenal's attacking prowess. As a differential pick, Havertz offers managers a unique opportunity to capitalise on Arsenal's favourable starting fixtures. With a home game against Wolves to start the season, Havertz could be the perfect differential to give your team an early boost.

Ivan Toney (Forward)

Cost: £7.5m

Ownership: 12.2%

Predicted points for first 3 GWs: 13.1

First 3 fixtures: CRY (H), LIV (A), SOU (H)

Brentford's talisman Ivan Toney is back and ready to make his mark on the Premier League once again. Despite playing only 17 games (1,449 minutes) last season due to suspension, Toney managed to rack up 57 FPL points. He scored 4 goals, underperforming his xG of 6.89, which suggests there's room for improvement. Toney also provided 3 assists, slightly overperforming his xA of 1.98. With 51 total shots (22 on target) and 3 big chances created, Toney's attacking potential is evident.

Toney ranks first in projected points among forwards owned by less than 15% of managers for the first three gameweeks, according to the Predicted Points & Stats tool.

Toney's return to the pitch has injected new life into Brentford's attack, and his presence alone seems to elevate the performance of those around him. With tempting home games against Crystal Palace and Southampton in two of the three fixtures to start the season, Toney could be the perfect differential to give your team an edge.

Chris Wood (Forward)

Cost: £6.0m

Ownership: 3.1%

Predicted points for first 3 GWs: 11.9

First 3 fixtures: BOU (H), SOU (A), WOL (H)

Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood emerges as an intriguing budget differential option. Having played 31 games (1,806 minutes) last season, Wood amassed a respectable 131 FPL points. The New Zealand international found the back of the net 14 times, impressively overperforming his xG of 11.45. While he only registered 1 assist, his goal-scoring prowess more than makes up for it. Wood's 48 total shots (26 on target) and 2 big chances created highlight his attacking threat.

Wood is currently in Walter Randazzo's latest draft. Our Elite XI: Team Reveal manager boasts an impressive seven top 10k finishes.

Wood's recent form has been a revelation for Forest. His ability to hold up play and bring others into the game has added a new dimension to their attack. As a differential pick, Wood offers managers a budget-friendly option with the potential for high returns. With an appealing home fixture against Bournemouth to kick off the season, Wood could be the perfect low-ownership gem to give your team a unique advantage.

What does ChatFPL recommend?

ChatFPL, the first Fantasy Premier League AI assistant, recommends starting the season with Toney as a differential pick. Additionally, it suggests considering Solanke, another option not covered in this blog. Get all your FPL questions answered by AI by clicking here.

Differential Forward Conclusion

In conclusion, Havertz, Toney, and Wood present exciting differential options for FPL managers looking to climb the ranks early in the season. Their low ownership, combined with their potential for high returns, makes them attractive prospects for those willing to take a calculated risk.

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