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FPL Differentials: Gibbs-White, Bailey, and Odegaard

Fantasy Football Fix 23 July 2024

Unlocking the Potential of Low-Ownership Stars

As Fantasy Premier League managers gear up for the new season, the search for differentials becomes crucial in gaining an early advantage.

Three players flying under the radar, with ownership below 15%, offer exciting potential to climb the ranks. Morgan Gibbs-White, Leon Bailey, and Martin Ødegaard present unique opportunities for managers looking to differentiate their squads. Let's delve into why these hidden gems could be the key to your FPL success.


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Morgan Gibbs-White (Midfielder)

Cost: £6.5m

Ownership: 6.4%

Predicted points (first 3 GWs): 13.4

First 3 fixtures: BOU (H), SOU (A), WOL (H)

Morgan Gibbs-White has emerged as a pivotal figure in Nottingham Forest's midfield. Last season, he featured in 34 games, amassing an impressive 142 FPL points. With 5 goals and 12 assists, Gibbs-White demonstrated his ability to contribute at both ends of the pitch. Interestingly, his expected goals (xG) of 6.2 suggests he slightly underperformed in the scoring department, hinting at potential for improvement. The midfielder's 15 big chances created further emphasise his playmaking abilities.

Gibbs-White shot map for the 2023/24 season

Gibbs-White took 71 shots, the most of any Forest player in 2023/24, as shown in the Opta Heatmaps tool.

Gibbs-White's last season form was nothing short of electrifying. His dynamic performances have caught the eye of many, with his ability to ghost into dangerous positions and pick out key passes becoming a hallmark of his play. As a differential pick, Gibbs-White offers managers a unique blend of consistency and explosive potential. With favourable fixtures against Bournemouth and Wolves at home in the first three gameweeks, he could be the perfect catalyst for a strong start to your FPL campaign.

Leon Bailey (Midfielder)

Cost: £6.5m Ownership: 3.7%

Predicted points (first 3 GWs): 9.1

First 3 fixtures: WHU (A), ARS (H), LEI (A)

Leon Bailey's 2023/24 season was a testament to his growing influence in the Aston Villa squad, with the midfielder accumulating an impressive 148 FPL points. His tally of 10 goals significantly outperformed his expected goals (xG) of 6.02, highlighting his clinical finishing. Additionally, his 11 assists, demonstrated his creative capabilities. With 11 big chances created, Bailey proved to be a constant threat in the final third.

The Jamaican winger's explosive pace and trickery have been causing havoc for opposition defenses, making him a joy to watch. As a differential pick, Bailey offers managers a high-risk, high-reward option. His low ownership of 3.7% means that when he performs, he could catapult managers up the rankings.

Midfield of Fantasy Premier League team reveal

Bailey has made the five-man midfield in Corey Baker's team, our Elite XI: Team Reveal manager with four top 10k finishes.

While Villa's upcoming fixtures look challenging, Bailey's ability to produce moments of magic makes him a tempting option for those looking to make bold moves early in the season.

Martin Ødegaard (Midfielder)

Cost: £8.5m

Ownership: 14.8%

Predicted points (first 3 GWs): 13.3

First 3 fixtures: WOL (H), AVL (A), BHA (H)

Martin Ødegaard's importance to Arsenal cannot be overstated. The Norwegian playmaker featured in 35 games last season, accumulating a substantial 186 FPL points. His 8 goals and 11 assists paint a picture of a midfielder equally adept at scoring and creating. Ødegaard's expected goals (xG) of 7.34 and expected assists (xA) of 10.56 suggest his performances were in line with expectations, indicating consistency rather than overperformance. The midfielder's 17 big chances created underline his status as one of Arsenal's primary creative force.

Saka and Odegaard Fantasy Premier League stats comparison for 2023/24

As shown in the Opta Player Heatmaps tool, Saka outperformed Ødegaard in most statistics last season. However, could the £1.5m savings make the Norwegian better value in 2024/25?

Ødegaard's ability to dictate the tempo of games, find pockets of space, and thread eye-of-the-needle passes has been crucial to Arsenal's attacking play. As a differential pick, Ødegaard offers a unique proposition. While his ownership of 14.8% is higher than the other two players discussed, it's still relatively low for a player of his caliber. With favourable home fixtures against Wolves and Brighton in the first three gameweeks, Ødegaard could be the perfect midfield maestro to orchestrate your FPL team's success.

What does ChatFPL recommend?

Fantasy Premier League AI assistant discussing De Bruyne as a differential pick

ChatFPL, the first Fantasy Premier League AI assistant, recommends starting the season with De Bruyne as a differential pick. Get all your FPL questions answered by AI by clicking here.

Conclusion

Gibbs-White, Bailey, and Ødegaard represent exciting differential options for FPL managers looking to gain an early edge. Each brings a unique set of skills and opportunities to the table, offering the potential for significant returns. As you finalise your squad for the opening gameweeks, consider these under-the-radar gems to set your team apart from the crowd and climb the rankings.


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