Best Budget Forwards to Consider for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25

After reviewing the best mid-priced defenders and midfielder picks, in this blog post we will deep-dive into the stats and performances of some of the top budget Fantasy Premier League forwards.

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Budget FPL Forward Point Projections

As the above image from our Player Points Projections feature shows, Wood (21.2) is projected to be the top scoring forward at £6.5m or under over the first six Gameweeks. Forest's first three fixtures in particular, against Bournemouth, Southampton and Wolves, bode well for returns from the New Zealand international.

Vardy scored 20 times in all competitions for the Foxes in 2023/24 but his gametime might be sporadic this year given the physical demands of the Premier League. Calvert-Lewin suffered an injury ridden campaign and could be a great pick if he can stay fit. Armstrong is one of the ones to monitor, he was Saints' talisman last season with 24 goals and 13 assists in the Championship.

Who had the most goal threat?

As the above image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, for the second half of last season, sorted by 'Expected Goals' (xG), Wood was top amongst the budget forwards for xG per game (0.52) with Pedro (0.42) and Muniz (0.41) close behind. Calvert-Lewin (0.39) and Cunha (0.39) were not too far off with Wissa (0.31) in sixth. However, a large chunk of Wissa's numbers were when he was playing alongside Toney. If Toney does leave Brentford and with the injury to their new forward Thiago, Wissa should get better chances as the Bees' centre-forward.

It is interesting to note that in terms of pure shot volume, Wood (2.14) is placed only fifth with Muniz (3.44) on top. The Kiwi international landed just 1.07 shots on target (SoT) per match (third) with Muniz (1.39) out in front for that metric. However, when it comes to 'big chances' (BC), Wood is significantly ahead of Muniz (1.14 vs 0.61).

Who has the most FPL assist potential?

Pedro is significantly ahead of the pack with 1.83 attempted assists per game, nearly double that of Wissa (0.94) in second. Muniz (0.72) and Wood (0.71) rely primarily on goals as their route to points with both posting 'Expected Assists' (xA) numbers lower than 0.10 per match. Cunha (three) managed the most assists in the second half of last season, despite an xA of just 1.16.

Who has the best FPL fixtures?

As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings feature shows, Fulham (second), Southampton (third), Forest (fourth), Everton (fifth) and Brighton (eighth) feature in the top eight for 'Attack Difficulty' over the first six Gameweeks, which only emphasises the appeal of starting with a budget forward from at least one of these teams.

Looking at the first three fixtures in isolation, Forest have the best run, but Fulham move to top once the Gameweek 1 trip to Old Trafford is out of the way. Everton have three good home fixtures but the away trips to Spurs and Villa are offputting. Southampton are a bit of an unknown quantity but with Armstrong coming in at just £5.5m, it might be a punt worth taking.

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