Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is LIVE for the 2024/25 season! As we dive into the new season, it's crucial to assemble a well-balanced squad to maximise your points and stay ahead of the competition.
In this blog post, we'll take a detailed look at the best Mid-Priced Forwards for Gameweeks 1-8, providing you with valuable insights and recommendations to help you make informed decisions for your Fantasy Premier League team.
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There are a plethora of Forward options available to FPL managers in the £7.0m- £9.0m price bracket and as the above image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, sorted by Average Goals per Game for Gameweeks 20-38, Isak was a dominant force in the second half of the season with 0.81 goals per game.
Mateta thrived under Glasner with an average of 0.74 goals per match, while Watkins' numbers tailed off a bit with just 0.56 goals per match. Similarly, Solanke dropped off with 0.35 goals per match, while Havertz found the back of the net almost every other game with an average of 0.47. Richarlison had very limited minutes (654) but averaged a healthy 0.5 goals per game despite lot of these appearances coming as a substitute.
Isak was significantly ahead of the others with 0.79 xG per game, as shown above in the Opta Stats Sandbox, which was of course aided by penalty duties. Darwin 0.51, Watkins (0.51), N. Jackson (0.45) and Solanke were close behind. Mateta managed only 0.43 xG per game but scored 0.74 and it needs to be seen whether the Frenchman can maintain that level of performance next season.
Havertz's xG numbers (0.42) were similar to his goalscoring (0.47) which indicates he should maintain similar levels. N. Jackson also improved his finishing in the second half of the campaign with an xG (0.45) that aligned with his goal scoring (0.41). Højlund's xG numbers (0.33) were nearly half of his goal return (0.60) which indicates that he is a wait and see option at the start of the campaign.
In terms of shot volume, Darwin (3.22) and Watkins (3.00) were the standout options, while Isak (1.63) landed the most shots on target (SoT) per game. With the changes to the Bonus Points System (BPS) favouring players who land more SoT, Isak and Watkins' stock has definitely gone up. In contrast, Mateta averaged just 1.16 SoT per game while Havertz managed 1.26.
The above table from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature, sorted by Attempted Assists per game, illustrates that Havertz has many routes to points with the German international top for chances created (1.58). He is also top for 'big chances' created (BCC) (0.37) and xA (0.24). Watkins was top for assists per game (0.39) but attempted an average of 1 assist per game which would indicate that these returns might not be sustainable in the long term.
N. Jackson could be an interesting option if he can nail down the centre-forward role under Maresca. The Senegalese international was the second most creative forward in the second half of the campaign with an average of 0.29 attempted assists per game. Like Watkins, Isak also attempted just one assist per game (1.06). Alvarez is third for attempted assists (1.28) but his xA (0.11) numbers indicate that these were low quality chances.
As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings feature shows, Liverpool have the best fixtures for 'Attack Difficulty' in the first eight Gameweeks of the season. However, it remains to be seen who Slot favours as his preferred front-three with Gakpo, Jota, Salah, Diaz and Darwin all in contention.
Arsenal are in fourth which increases the appeal of Havertz. While Newcastle have a strong Gameweek 1-3, but their fixtures toughen up after that which sees the Magpies ranked eighth. Villa and Palace are ranked 14th and 15th which is off-putting for those considering Watkins and Mateta.
As the above image from our Predicted Points & Stats feature shows, Watkins (38.2) sits at the top with Havertz (35.9), Toney (33.7), Isak (30.7) and Solanke (30.6) rounding off the top-five. Toney might be set for a new club move over the transfer window, which could see his potential enhanced or diminished. Solanke's tough start to the season means that he sits in sixth (30.6).
Based on the above analysis, Watkins, Isak and Havertz look to be the top three ‘Mid-Priced forwards’ for the start of the 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League campaign. Havertz also made our top three differential picks for managers seeking a low-owned option to start the season.
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