An often-asked question in the Fantasy Premier League community is “can Player X cover Player Y?”
This occurs more when prohibitive pricing forces FPL managers to downgrade a premium option for ‘the next best thing’ from the same team, allowing managers to avail of the fixtures, while spreading their funds elsewhere.
In this article, we focus on the three most expensive players in the game and see if there is any scope to cover them with cheaper options from the same team.
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By comparing and contrasting underlying statistics, considering managerial changes, and assessing potential for game time, we explore alternative possibilities for each premium.
On the surface, this almost looks like a no-brainer. A saving of £5.5m for a player who earned more points. The first thing we need to ask is: are we comparing apples with apples? In terms of game time, Phil Foden (£9.5m) played 2,860 minutes compared to Erling Haaland (£15.0m) who played 2,553. This means Haaland earned 7.64 points per 90 minutes, compared to Foden’s 7.22, so immediately we can see the surface assumption is flawed.
A look at the underlying statistics per 90 also tells a different story, one in which Haaland’s record-breaking price rise looks more justified. In terms of goal scoring metrics, no-one comes close to Haaland, who is top of all players for xG (1.04), Big Chances (1.90), and Shots on Target (2.08).
Comparing Haaland to Foden using Opta Player Heatmaps, we can see that Haaland (in red) scores almost twice as many goals (0.95 to Foden’s 0.60) for every minute the two players spend on the pitch. His xG is over three times higher than Foden’s 0.33 per 90, meaning the quality of chances Haaland gets are much better.
We also know that Foden was the top over-performing player last season as covered in our over/under performers article last week, so his FPL point output should be regarded through this lens.
With all that considered, the ability to cover Haaland with Foden doesn’t look quite so appealing.
The above reads similar to the Manchester City scenario, albeit not quite as stark. Again, we have the alternative option generating better value and representing a significant budgetary saving. As before, we have a slight discrepancy, with Luis Díaz (£7.5m) clocking more game time than Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) with 2,651 minutes to Salah’s 2,540. However, this is close enough to call it even.
The underlying data makes for interesting reading. The first key difference is that Salah beats Díaz against every available attacking metric. Whereas Foden outshone Haaland for creative numbers, Salah dominates in all areas. That being said, the difference between the two isn’t quite as glaring as it was between the Manchester City attackers, particularly for goal threat.
Consider two additional factors when analysing the comparison shown above in the Opta Player Heatmaps tool: consistency and managerial changes.
On consistency, there is no better FPL asset than Mohamed Salah. Over the last seven seasons, Salah has an average FPL points return of 249 per season, 5 more than Cole Palmer (£10.5m) earned last season as the top-scoring FPL player. Bringing in Salah as an asset feels like an assured bet, given the Egyptian King hasn’t ever scored sub-200 points since playing for Liverpool.
The big question is, what will life look like under the new Liverpool boss Arne Slot? How will Salah operate under a non-Klopp system, and will he indeed still be a Liverpool player before the transfer window closes?
We know Arne Slot likes attacking football and favours a 3-4-3 formation, so in that sense, little will change in terms of formation and intent. But Slot’s style has been described as ‘elegant’ as opposed to Klopp’s relentless, aggressive pressing and, as of yet, the Dutch manager remains unproven in the Premier League.
Keeping an eye on pre-season will make a big difference to this decision.
This is the only one of our comparisons where the best alternative does not offer a points per £m benefit. Cole Palmer is in another league from his Chelsea team mates. It doesn’t really matter which way you compare it, there is currently no-one in that Chelsea squad who can cover Palmer.
Using the Fix Comparison Matrix below, we compare Chelsea's top-five highest scoring players from last season.
I won’t bore you with a comparison of underlying data, because it is almost universally in favour of Palmer. But of note is the fact that, despite the xG for penalties Palmer accrues, he is still level with Nicolas Jackson (£7.5m) for xG per 90 (0.58) and, if you remove penalties from the equation, Jackson is significantly ahead with 0.58 to Palmer’s 0.35, although this is perhaps more indicative of Jackson’s inability to finish than anything else.
According to the Opta Stats Sandbox, even Raheem Sterling (£7.0m) edges ahead of Palmer for non-penalty xG (NPxG), this highlights the significance of penalties to Palmer's game.
I think if you are looking to ‘cover’ Cole Palmer – and owners of both Haaland and Salah will almost certainly be forced to – a better option may be Christopher Nkunku (£6.5m), who could be the most under-priced asset in the game, if he can replicate his Bundesliga form in the Premier League. Keep an eye on this one in pre-season.
As with Liverpool, new management needs to be taken into consideration. Italian head coach Enzo Maresca will field a new look Chelsea in the 2024/25 season and may take some time to gel. This could throw out any meaningful comparisons which can be made from last season.
In short, none of the premiums can be ‘covered’ by alternatives with any degree of confidence; premiums have been well priced this season. Perhaps counter-intuitively, I would be most reluctant to replace Haaland with Foden, primarily because Haaland’s goal threat is off the charts, while Foden massively over-performed last season.
Replacing Salah with Díaz may be a dark-horse pick which could work out well for FPL managers, but keeping an eye on pre-season will reveal more about how Liverpool personnel will operate under Slot’s new regime.
Finally, there is no proven Chelsea option to replace Palmer and he offers incredible value despite the price hike. I think he is the first pick in a Salah-and-Haaland-less squad, but Nkunku could end up being a great, albeit unproven, replacement.
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