With about a month until the Premier League season starts, it might seem too early for serious planning. However, with Fantasy Premier League game finally launching, now is the perfect time to start preparing.
The fixtures, though subject to unexpected changes, are set and can provide early insights on when to bring certain players in or out of your team. This also helps in determining the optimal time to play your first Wildcard in Fantasy Premier League.
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This type of FPL analysis can have a bearing on our initial squad structure and player selection. Knowing when to jump on certain assets and, just as importantly, when to sell them, is an important pillar of long-term planning (check out the Fixture Planner for more pre-season planning options).
The first thing to do is to have a look at the fixture schedule for a large chunk of the season and see if anything jumps out. Using the Fixture Planner, we can look at the first 18 Gameweeks (roughly half the season) and take a high-level view of how the landscape looks for the teams.
NB: For the purposes of this blog, we are focused on attacking assets and so the Fixture Planner is configured to assess difficulty in terms of the opposition’s defence.
Immediately, we can see that Liverpool, Southampton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest have the kindest opening fixtures (Gameweeks 1-6). Newly promoted Ipswich and Leicester endure a difficult start, as do Premier League veterans Spurs, West Ham, and Wolves.
To allow us to more clearly identify patterns in the schedule where fixture swings occur, we have blanked out any fixture which is showing as over a certain shade of red in terms of attacking difficulty. This shows us clearly demarcated blocks of good fixtures which we can target.
One of the most significant fixture swings we can see occurs in Gameweek 7, when Liverpool, Southampton, and Fulham go from being in the top three teams, in terms of easiest opposition, to being amongst the worst between Gameweek 7 and 12.
Conversely, Leicester go from having a tough start between Gameweeks 1-6, to a great run thereafter, where they face their newly promoted rivals twice in the next six Gameweeks in a run that includes two home games against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.
It is also worth noting that after mixed starts, Manchester City, Everton and Brentford all go on a fantastic run at Gameweek 7.
With Manchester City’s fixtures still in our minds, we can see that their good run ends around Gameweek 13 when they face Liverpool at home, followed by away fixtures to Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.
Likewise, Everton’s schedule takes a dire turn in Gameweek 13, where they are ranked worst of all teams in terms of fixture difficulty, having to play both Manchester clubs, Liverpool, and Arsenal away.
An impossible question to answer before a ball has even been kicked, but targeting a place in the schedule to deploy your first Wildcard is good practice, so long as you are willing to remain flexible and adapt to new information. Also, we must consider a significant change to FPL rules, which will be introduced next season and will have a dramatic impact on transfer and Wildcard strategy.
10 points for a keeper scoring a goal, and a raft of changes to the Bonus Points System (BPS) are just two examples of the changes FPL will introduce this season.
The biggest change of all, however, relates to transfers and will have a huge bearing on FPL planning and chip strategy.
In the 2024/25 season, managers will be able to stack up to a maximum of five free transfers by rolling them. Crucially, accumulated free transfers will no longer be wiped out when playing a Wildcard or Free Hit. To give an extreme example, an FPL manager who has five free transfers could play their Wildcard and then make five free transfers in the subsequent Gameweek.
The above must be taken into account when considering any Wildcard strategy, including what is outlined below.
Many FPL managers like to target international breaks as their time to use their Wildcard chip. There is merit to this strategy, as it gives managers the opportunity to manage injuries picked up internationally, without having to use transfers or take hits. In the 2024/25 season, there will be three international breaks in the first half of the season.
For those who like to play their Wildcard early, the first international break takes place between Gameweeks 3 and 4, offers a good opportunity to switch some assets around, especially for those managers who like to focus on a short-term horizon.
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Fixture swings which stand out here are Newcastle and Brighton. The former goes from being ranked top (Gameweeks 1-3) to second worst (Gameweeks 4-6). The latter, ranked last for fixture difficulty in the first three Gameweeks, are ranked top in the subsequent three matches.
Ditching Newcastle assets for Brighton ones could be a popular play here.
Looking through a longer-term lens, the second international break could offer a good point in which to reset the squad. In addition to the obvious benefit of allowing managers to gather more season data and get a better feel for which way the proverbial wind is blowing, there are a number of fixture swings of note.
Firstly, Liverpool and Southampton – who have a great start to the season – suffer a decline in fixtures around this point. Conversely, Wolves, who have a torrid start, are ranked top for fixture ease between Gameweeks 9-18.
Managers who do not feel a squad reset is necessary can target the third international break to deploy their FPL Wildcard.
Armed with even more player data, managers can avail of four significant fixture swings. Everton and Nottingham Forest go from being amongst the best between Gameweeks 1-11, to being the worst thereafter.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth and Wolves who have a tricky start (through a longer-term lens) find that they are amongst the best at this point.
It is also worth noting that Arsenal are ranked second from top between Gameweeks 12-18. If they continue as expected in the 2024/25 season, this may be a place where managers will want to triple up on their players.
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