With four Gameweeks gone, and an international break to give us time to ponder, now is a great time to analyse the fixture schedule and forward plan chip strategy, in particular the first Wildcard.

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As always, the decision to deploy a Wildcard is circumstantial, and there is no right or wrong answer which can be universally applied to the FPL landscape. There are, however, certain trends in the fixture schedule which offer a better opportunity for managers to hit that button.

The Schedule (Gameweeks 5-19)

The first thing to do is to have a look at the fixture schedule for a reasonable period to see what immediately pops out. As with our previous article on the topic (posted in pre-season) we are going to use the Fixture Planner to look at Gameweeks 5-19 and take a high-level view of how the landscape looks for the teams.

NB: For the purposes of this blog, we are focused on attacking assets and so the Fixture Planner is configured to assess difficulty in terms of the opposition’s defence.

To allow us to more clearly identify patterns in the schedule where fixture swings occur, we have blanked out any fixture which is showing as over a certain shade of red in terms of attacking difficulty. This shows us clearly demarcated blocks of good fixtures which we can target.

Gameweek 5

As we mentioned in our previous article, the first international break provides managers with a good checkpoint from which to Wildcard and indeed many managers have already slammed the button, with more set to do so in the coming days.

There are a number of advantages to Wildcarding here; Manchester United and Aston Villa start to turn a corner in terms of their fixtures. Players such as Matty Cash (£4.6m) and Moussa Diaby (£6.6m) are amongst the high-performing Villa players managers may want to consider bringing in now that the fixtures turn kind. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, both players have had more shots on target (5) than any other Villa assets and the latter is ranked highest for both goals (2) and xA (2.03) – amongst Villa players – meaning he offers multiple routes to points.

Sellers of Marcus Rashford (£8.9m) and Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) may take this opportunity to re-introduce these players to their teams. For those willing to take a punt, Rasmus Højlund (£7.0m) could make for an interesting differential option at just 1.5% owned. Rashford has looked better since moving out to his favoured position on the wing, something which the introduction of Højlund has allowed. Fernandes continues to rack up the underlying data, if not the actual FPL points - redolent of his performance at the end of the 2022/23 campaign – but whether this underperformance against his underlying stats will continue is a judgement call managers need to make.

Finally, now is a good time to ditch our Brighton assets. Their fixtures have already turned for the worse, and will continue on a bad streak until around Gameweek 10. Other than this, however, there are no other major fixtures swings to target. A strong performing squad from Gameweeks 1-4 is unlikely to look a great deal different from a more optimal Gameweek 5 Wildcard draft and, in that sense, perhaps a Wildcard here is wasteful (apart from those managers who are beset with squad issues) especially when you consider that 4 Gameweeks' worth of data, while not worthless, is not quite as valuable as it could be.

Gameweek 9

All things being equal, the international break between Gameweek 8 and Gameweek 9 looks a great place to Wildcard. There are two primary reasons for this; data and fixtures. While more data is always welcome, eight Gameweeks worth of matches offers enough insight to filter out discrepancies or outliers. It gives managers a better feeling of what is a trend and what is a one-off which can be disregarded.

In terms of the schedule, there is a clear fixture swing for a number of clubs with strong FPL assets. Brighton, having endured their difficult period, come into another good run. West Ham, having started the season with an awful run, finally embark on a really nice period of games, and Liverpool, who have looked surprisingly strong given their midfield rebuild, have a great run between Gameweeks 9 and 15.

Top of the list from these clubs in terms of underlying data is Mohamed Salah (£12.5m). If you are amongst the 75% of managers who doesn’t own him, then a Wildcard here would provide a great platform to alter the squad structure to accommodate him. West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen (£7.1m), has had an awesome start to the season despite facing tougher opposition. Currently on 30 points, he is the second-best scoring midfielder in the game and is currently less than 10% owned. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.9m) whose passing has been sublime this season, can’t be easily brought in without a shuffle around, which further increases the appeal of a Wildcard.

This is also the period where Manchester City’s fortunes turn, with a difficult run of fixtures which extends as far as Gameweek 16 when they play newly promoted Luton. While I can’t see many managers removing Erling Haaland (£14.1m), this could be a great opportunity to lessen the number of City players in their squads. Likewise, as Everton’s fixtures turn really bad, owners of Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) will finally get their chance to make a goalkeeping switch, without spending a precious free transfer.

Gameweek 12

Managers may find they get to the big fixture swing at Gameweek 9 and are happy with their squads and don’t want to Wildcard. In which case, there is another, less significant swing around Gameweek 12.

Teams like Newcastle embark on their first truly excellent run since the beginning of the season, whereas Chelsea’s very generous start begins to go a little awry. Another advantage of a Gameweek 12 Wildcard is that there is almost a third of the season’s worth of data from which to draw our conclusions.

Be flexible

There is, of course, no need to set a Wildcard in stone. One advantage of planning a Wildcard in advance is the ability to reduce our transfer horizon, allowing us to make shorter term decisions and ‘dead-end’ our teams. This usually offers great opportunities to take a one-or-two-week punt, safe in the knowledge that the Wildcard will soon be on hand to restore order.

But there is also nothing wrong – and, in fact, there is a lot right! - with just keeping the Wildcard as a safety net. A sudden and unexpected bout of injuries, suspensions or dramatic drops in player form could plunge your squad into the doldrums overnight. Should this happen, a Wildcard in the back pocket would be extremely welcome.

Conclusion

As always, the decision to play our Wildcard is both personal and team dependant; we must always be willing to go against our own plans if the situation deems it necessary. Even the best laid plans can go awry and an injury crisis in Gameweek 6 could make playing the Wildcard a sensible option for you, whilst others have the luxury of saving theirs.

By Matt Whelan

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