In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 9's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 8 with a score of 14.0, the 31-year-old took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances' and he also attempted three assists. Wood was top for SiB (seven), the New Zealand international was afforded two BC and notched an xFPL score of 11.3. B. Fernandes was the Gameweek's most creative player with five attempted assists, however, the Portuguese international took no SiB which meant a low xFPL score of 6.4. Mbeumo's numbers were impressive, the attacker took six shots, three of which were in the box and he also created a BC which meant an xFPL score of 9.4. Son showed why he continues to be a great FPL option, the South Korean international took two SiB and attempted four assists, he had just one BC involvement and registered an xFPL score of 8.8.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

Evaluate transfer analytics to see which players are popular with other managers.

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Watkins and Salah are the top transfers in ahead of Gameweek 10 on the back of their double-digit hauls in Gameweek 9, with nearly 450,000 transfers between the two. Both have already risen in price by £0.1m each, and are now £8.3m and £12.8m respectively. D. Luiz has scored in every home game this season and has seen nearly 150,000 ‘transfers in‘, with Saka close behind ahead of the home fixture against Sheff. Utd. The injured Estupiñan and Botman top the ‘transfers out’, and managers have also lost patience with the Man. Utd. duo of Rashford and B. Fernandes, with the pair seeing over 200,000 sales. B. Fernandes dropping in price overnight, down to £8.3m. Despite his goal against Brighton, Haaland has been sold by nearly 100,000 FPL managers. Up top, Watkins accounts for nearly 50% of the forward transfer combinations with Morris, Alvarez and Haaland making way. In midfield, the transfer combinations are far more scattered with Son, Rashford, Mbeumo and B. Fernandes all making way for Saka, Salah and Bowen. In defence, Tsimikas accounts for over 25% of the transfer activity with Botman, Lamptey and Estupiñan making way

Bowen vs Mitoma

West Ham and Brighton both embark on a great run of fixtures from Gameweek 10 and many FPL managers can only find room for one of Mitoma or Bowen in their squads with so many other heavy hitters doing the business. As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Bowen has significantly outscored Mitoma so far with 58 FPL points versus 44 for the Japanese international and the latter was also benched for one game after Europa League exertions.

In terms of underlying numbers, Bowen clearly has the superior goal threat. He wins for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (4.00 vs 2.75), SiB (20 vs 15) and SoT (13 vs eight) while Mitoma has the edge for creativity. The Japanese international has attempted 16 assists to Bowen's five but in terms of BC created, it's closer with two BC created for Bowen and three for Mitoma. Both players are excellent picks, but there is currently a £0.9m difference between the two, so if cash is an issue, Mitoma could be the way to go.

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