Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 10?

Dive into our weekly analysis where we spotlight the top performers from the previous Gameweek, examine the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players to consider for your lineup this week.

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FPL Gameweek 10: Which Players to Target?

Expected FPL Points Review - A Look at the Stats

As the below image shows, Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 9 with a score of 11.5. The Norwegian international was top for shots (eight), shots in the box (eight), shots on target (four) and 'big chances' (four) but only had six FPL points to show for his efforts.

Savio, Foden and Roerslev were the weekend's most creative players with five attempted assists each. Savio was the only one to create more than one 'big chance' (two) which meant a higher xFPL score of 9.9, versus 5.8 and 4.5 for the other two.

Salah continues to rake in the points, the 31-year-old took two shots in the box, one of which was the 'big chance' he converted and attempted just one assist, leading to an xFPL score of 8.6.

Cunha impressed ahead of Wolves' great fixture run, the Brazilian international was second for shots in the box (five) only to Haaland and he attempted four assists as well. However, he had only one 'big chance' involvement overall which meant a relatively low xFPL score of 7.6.

Gvardiol looks like an ideal Gabriel replacement if the Brazilian international is ruled out for a lengthy period, the Croatian international attempted three assists and took two shots, leading to an xFPL score of 8.5.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which Players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Mbeumo is the most popular transfer in for Gameweek 10 so far with over 200,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

Wood scored his fourth goal in three matches which has seen nearly 200,000 FPL managers bring in the New Zealand international, while Aït-Nouri and Gvardiol have also seen over 200,000 transfers combined after their returns in Gameweek 10.

Son missed out entirely in Gameweek 10 but is expected to be back by Gameweek 11, nevertheless nearly 90,000 FPL managers have decided to part ways with the South Korean international. Watkins and Luis Díaz both blanked and are being sold in droves, but it is perhaps surprising to see Saka in fourth after his goal and return to fitness.

A look at the Top 10 defender transfer combinations shows that FPL managers are moving Gabriel, Alexander-Arnold and Porro out for either Aït-Nouri or Gvardiol, and the Algerian international is currently the most popular transfer-in.

In midfield, all the traffic is going to Salah or Palmer with Foden, Son, Saka and Luis Díaz being sold. Up top, budget forwards are popular, with Wood occupying five of the Top 10 forward transfer combinations. Wissa and Cunha are also popular with Havertz, Calvert-Lewin, Solanke and Watkins making way.

Gvardiol vs Lewis - Is Gvardiol worth the extra?

As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, over the last four Gameweeks Gvardiol (29) has outscored Lewis (14) by 15 FPL points with the duo both starting all four matches. It is worth mentioning that Man. City have kept only one clean sheet over the aforementioned period.

Gvardiol has scored two goals while Lewis has registered one assist over the last four Gameweeks, but the stats in the image above show that the Croatian international is indeed worth the extra spend.

Gvardiol has registered 0.58 xG compared to just 0.09 for Lewis, and has taken three shots in the box compared to just one for the England international. He is also significantly better when it comes to creativity with seven attempted assists compared to just two for Lewis.

Based on the numbers, managers looking for a Gabriel replacement should spend the extra £1.4m on Gvardiol over Lewis.

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