As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 11.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 3rd November prior to some of the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Ollie Watkins

• Cost: £8.4m
• Selected by: 42.1%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 27.7

Quite often we reach a slump in the season, where our transfer decisions are far from clear; Gameweek 11 feels like one of those weeks. Sometimes, it is best to do nothing in these situations; rolling the transfer can give a manager more firepower in the future, when the path forward may be more obvious.

But, if you are looking to use a transfer and still do not own Ollie Watkins (£8.4m), then he is probably amongst the top transfer options for Gameweek 11. In the next four Gameweeks, Villa face Nottingham Forest, Fulham, and Bournemouth – only a trip to London to take on Spurs puts a spanner in these works.

If you are worried about Watkins’ blank against Luton Town, don’t be. This was an uncharacteristic blip, which non-owners can count themselves lucky for. In that match alone, Watkins racked up a combined xG and xA of 1.47 (Opta Stats Sandbox) and had plenty of chances to score. Despite this blank, he is still averaging over 9 points per game (in the last six Gameweeks) which is a stunning return.

Owners may wish to consider an exit plan around Gameweek 15 when Aston Villa’s fixtures turn for the worse.

SELL: Alexander Isak

• Cost: £7.4m
• Selected by: 14.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 10.9

The Newcastle striker seems to have flown somewhat under the radar this season, so it may be surprising to learn that he is quite highly owned. In fact, as of Gameweek 4, over 2.7 million managers had him in their front line. He is still owned by roughly 15% of FPL managers – although, according to Live Insight, this drops to just over 5% amongst managers in the Top 100k – but this is set to decrease following news that his groin injury will see him out until after the international break.

With so many high-performing forwards vying for just three precious spaces, it is counter-productive to hold on to Alexander Isak (£7.4m).

KEEP: Kaoru Mitoma

• Cost: £6.5m
• Selected by: 36.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 28.4

Four back-to-back blanks have somewhat lowered the stock of Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m). Consequently, he has become the sixth most transferred out player in FPL ahead of Gameweek 11. Interestingly, the majority of those transfers (22.6%) have been to bring in Aston Villa’s Douglas Luiz (£5.6m).

But selling the Japanese international just before Brighton play Everton, Sheffield United, and Nottingham Forest could be a huge mistake. In fact, looking beyond this short horizon, Brighton is ranked 3rd best for attacking opportunities over the next six Gameweeks, meaning not only does Mitoma have a great fixture in Gameweek 11, but he makes a strong case for being a long-term hold too.

By Matt Whelan

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