In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 10's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 10 with a score of 15.6. The Norwegian international took four shots in the box (SiB), all of which were 'big chances' (BC) and landed four attempts on target. He also created a BC for Foden. No player took more shots than Zaniolo (six), just one of these was a BC and he landed just one shot on target (SoT) which meant a low xFPL score of 6.1. Palmer, Szoboszlai amd Dahoud were joint-top for chances created (four), the trio all created just one BC apiece with Szoboszlai (8.7) comfortably beating Palmer (4.6) and Dahoud (3.9) for xFPL. Mbeumo underlined his credentials once again as the go-to budget midfielder, the Cameroon international took four SiB and had three BC involvements, leading to an xFPL score of 9.8. Watkins owners were unlucky not to get any returns, the England international took two SiB, both of which were BC and also created two BC enroute to an xFPL score of 7.2.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

Evaluate transfer analytics to see which players are popular with other managers.

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, on the back of his hattrick against Sheff. Utd. Nketiah tops the transfers-in with nearly 150,000 FPL managers bringing him in. The next three transfers involve the midfield trio of Mbeumo, Son and D. Luiz who have seen over 300,000 transfers-in combined. The transfers-out are dominated by players who missed out in Gameweek 11 such as Isak, Udogie and Ødegaard , with the trio seeing nearly 350,000 transfers out combined. Up top, Nketiah accounts for just approximately 13% of the transfer combinations with Haaland, Watkins and Darwin seeing substantial traffic. In midfield, Hee Chan appears to be quite popular with the South Korean international taking up three of the top 10 midfielder transfer combinations. Neto and Ward-Prowse are being sold in droves. In defence, Udogie takes up a large chunk of the traffic out with 50% of the transfer combinations involving shipping out the Italy international. Tsimikas is by far the most popular replacement with Botman, Burn and Gabriel also making way.

Alexander-Arnold vs Tsimikas

Tsimikas has started both games in Robertson's absence since the international break and he is currently £3.4m cheaper than the England international. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature, their numbers are compared over the last two Gameweeks. The sample size is limited but the Greek international has shown he can match Alexander-Arnold for a fraction of the price. Though the right-back has taken significantly more shots (seven), the fact that his total 'Expected Goals' (xG) figure is just 0.29 indicates that these were all low quality attempts, at an average of approximately 0.04. Meanwhile, Tsimikas has created better chances with an 'Expected Assists' (xA) tally of 0.28 compared to 0.10 for Alexander-Arnold. It currently does not look like Alexander-Arnold is worth the price tag with Tsimikas offering a cut-price route into the Liverpool defence.

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