In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 13's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

Willian tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 13 with a score of 13.1. The 35-year-old scored both the penalties Fulham were awarded and also attempted two assists. No player took more shots over the weekend than Gibbs-White (seven), five of these were in the box and he also attempted four assists. His two 'big chance' (BC) involvements (one BC, one BC created) meant he racked up an xFPL score of 11.6. Gross was the most creative player with six chances created, he notched two assists but none of these were classified as BC which meant a low xFPL score of 3.9. Haaland attempted five shots in the box (SiB), but landed just two attempts on target. He was joint-top for BC (two) and notched an xFPL score of 7.0. Porro posted some impressive numbers, the Spanish international took three SiB and created two BC en route to an xFPL score of 6.9.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Gordon is the most transferred-in player this week on the back of his 13-point FPL haul. Over 200,000 FPL managers have brought in the Newcastle winger. Despite blanks in the last two Gameweeks, Mbeumo is in second with nearly 200,000 FPL managers transferring him in while the Arsenal trio of Zinchenko, Saka and Saliba round off the 'Top five' ahead of their home fixture against Wolves. The injured duo of Mitoma and Bowen are the most sold with the pair seeing nearly 500,000 transfers out combined already. FPL managers also seem to be losing patience with Son. The South Korean international has been sold by 125,000 managers with the London side travelling to Man. City next. Alvarez is the most sold forward, six of the top 10 forward transfer combinations involve moving out the Argentina international for Haaland, Darwin, Isak and Watkins. In midfield, four of the top five combinations involve bringing in Mbeumo, with Bowen and Diaby the most popular transfers out. In defence, six of the 'Top 10' defender transfer combinations involve selling Cash with Zinchenko, Saliba, Tsimikas, Gabriel, Pinnock and Lascelles being the popular replacements.

Gordon vs Mbeumo

As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Gordon (24) has outscored Mbeumo (22) for FPL points over the last four Gameweeks with the pair both featuring for 360 mins. Gordon has featured a fair bit higher than Mbeumo for BPS, which should always be considered as this is another gateway to points as can be seen by his higher score (3 vs 2).

Gordon has scored two goals compared to just one for Mbeumo, but the underlying numbers paint a different picture. Mbeumo is ahead for every single metric which includes shots (seven vs 13), shots on target (three vs four), SiB (four vs nine), 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.95 vs 2.40), attempted assists (two vs six) and 'Expected Assists' (xA) (0.35 vs 0.74). Gordon looks like a good pick in his own right, particularly with how strong Newcastle are this season, as demonstrated by their convincing 4-1 home win over an in-form Chelsea side, but Mbeumo is in another league in terms of underlying data, and looks to be just about edging it ahead of Gordon, with all things considered (full season form, penalties).