As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 17.

Caveat: This article was written on the morning of the 15th December, prior to the Premier League press conferences.

BUY: Dominic Solanke

• Cost: £6.7m
• Selected by: 11.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 27.7

Short-term fixtures, underlying statistics, and (most importantly) actual FPL returns have all converged towards Bournemouth’s front man as we step into Gameweek 17.

With a great fixture against Luton Town – followed by Nottingham Forest and Fulham – the next three Gameweeks could be a great opportunity for a Bournemouth side which have a distinct attacking edge since Andoni Iraola took over at the helm.

Amongst forwards, Dominic Solanke (£6.7m) is ranked third best for xFPL Points (75.34), second for shots (48), fourth for xG (8.23), and joint-third for actual goals scored (8), according to Opta Stats Sandbox.

If you are looking to make changes to your front line, then Solanke could be a great short-to-medium-term pick.

SELL: Darwin Núñez

• Cost: £7.6m
• Selected by: 16.8%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 26.2

We advocated for bringing in Darwin Núñez (£7.6m) around Gameweek 13, when Liverpool embarked on a nice run of fixtures – and when Ollie Watkins (£8.5m) was rumoured to be injured.

According to Live Insight, over 18% of managers in the Top 100k still own the Liverpool forward despite him only returning 15 points in his last six Gameweeks (2.5 points per game on average).

As we enter the midst of the festive chaos, Liverpool’s fixtures become something of a mixed bag, and it may be time to reflect on whether or not it is sensible to own a minutes risk who has a penchant for under-performing against his xG.

According to Transfer Analytics, Darwin is the sixth most transferred-out player this Gameweek, and it is difficult to fault the logic of his sellers.

KEEP: Kieran Trippier

• Cost: £6.9m
• Selected by: 44.3%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 18.9

It has not been the best couple of weeks for Kieran Tripper (£6.9m). Defensive errors contributed to Newcastle’s shock 3-0 defeat at Goodison Park in Gameweek 15. Their away fixture to Spurs was arguably worse; once again Trippier’s performance was found wanting as Newcastle endured another heavy defeat. The accumulation of his fifth yellow card meant that not only must his owners suffer a -1 total score but also endure a suspension in Gameweek 17.

To make matters worse, Trippier picked up a knock in their midweek fixture against AC Milan, a match in which they were eliminated from the Champions League group stage. It is little wonder that many of his owners are frustrated, with over half a million managers having departed ways already.

But we would remind owners of what Trippier is capable of. Despite recent misfortunes, the Newcastle fullback is still the top-scoring defender in the game, having bagged four double-digit hauls this season. He is also great value, returning more points than many midfielders who are priced in excess of him.

Keep an ear out at the press conferences; his suspension against Fulham should help him recover from his knock, in which case he will be back and ready against Luton.

By Matt Whelan

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