If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.
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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 17 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.
With the exception of Kyle Walker (£5.3m) – who has bagged 1,439 minutes this season – it is Rúben Dias (£5.5m) who is the next most nailed (a word we hesitate to use when it comes to Pep) in City’s back line.
In Gameweek 17, Manchester City face a Crystal Palace team who are ranked 2nd worst of all Premier League teams for number of goals scored (15). They are also ranked fifth from bottom for big chances (26), and sixth from bottom for xG (20.67) according to Opta Stats Sandbox.
City have looked suspect at the back recently, conceding 10 goals in the last five matches. Despite this, they are still amongst the top for underlying defensive statistics. Importantly; they are second (just behind Arsenal) for xGC (16.36).
There is no doubt that Pep will be looking to improve things defensively, and the Palace game will provide a good platform to do so. Buyers should note that City blank in Gameweek 18, so must ensure that they have bench coverage to deal with this.
Undefeated in their first ten matches, Spurs hit a major slump in Gameweek 11 when they went without a win for five matches (four of which were losses).
Gameweek 16 saw them host a Newcastle side in what should have been one of their most difficult fixtures; but Postecoglou’s men came away from the contest with a 4-1 victory to end their winless streak.
With momentum on their side, Spurs will be looking to regain their form and Dejan Kulusevski (£7.1m) could be central to achieving this goal. Over the last four Gameweeks, Kulusevski is joint top for shots on target (5) – amongst Spurs players – is second for attempted assists (12) and second for xA (1.79) – check out Opta Player Heatmaps for more info.
Up next is a trip to Nottingham Forest, which could see big returns from the Swedish international.
Are you ready for the pain? No, you did not misread the above. We are recommending Nicolas Jackson (£6.9m) as our differential forward pick for Gameweek 17.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Chelsea faces Sheffield United at Stamford Bridge. A home game against statistically the worst defence in the league. They’ve conceded the most goals (41), the most shots (292), and have managed just one clean sheet all season.
For most of the season, Jackson’s efforts have been characterised by an over-performance against his expected data, but signs are now shifting in his favour. The expected data has decreased, while his actual goal involvements have increased; is this a sign that he is becoming more clinical?
Between Gameweeks 1-10, Jackson was one of the top players for xG and xA combined, yet in this time he managed only two goal involvements – much to the frustration of his owners. Since Gameweek 10, he has racked up five goal involvements, including a hat-trick against Spurs.
With good fixtures beyond Gameweek 17, this could be a great time to jump on Jackson.
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