In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 16's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

Son tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 16 with a score of 14.3. He took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances' (BC) and he also attempted four assists, two of which were classified as BC created. Adingra posted impressive numbers, the 21-year-old took three SiB, two of which were BC and he also attempted four assists enroute to an xFPL score of 11.1. Only McTominay (seven) took more shots than Richarlison (six), the Brazilian international scored both of his BC and notched an xFPL score of 9.1. B. Fernandes and Alexander-Arnold were the most creative players with six attempted assists each, the latter registered an xFPL score of 6.2 compared to the Portuguese international's 3.0 as he created two BC with none for the former.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analyser shows, Solanke is the most transferred-in player this week after his goal at Old Trafford, he has seen nearly 200,000 new owners with Son in second. Gordon, Porro and Senesi round off the top five with the trio all seeing nearly 350,000 transfers combined. The top five transfers out all involve players who are suspended or injury doubts going into the weekend with Mbeumo and Trippier topping the list. Haaland is not seeing as many transfers out as one would expect with Guardiola still not ruling out the Norwegian international for Gameweek 17, only approximately 120,000 FPL managers have sold him so far. In fact, the top two transfer combinations for forwards involve selling Darwin with Solanke and Watkins the beneficiaries. Four of the other two combinations involve selling a City forward for either Solanke or Watkins. Midfield transfer combinations are a bit more scattered but Mbeumo accounts for five of the top 10 transfer combinations with Gordon, Palmer, Son, Bowen and Sterling coming in. Porro is popular in defence, seven of the top 10 defender transfer combinations involve bringing in the right-back with Trippier, Palace defenders, R. James and Tsimikas making way.

Watkins vs Solanke

Watkins and Solanke are both popular transfer targets this week and as the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Solanke has outscored Watkins by five FPL points over the last six Gameweeks. Both players have started every game over the busy period which underlines their importance to their respective sides.

Solanke has scored four goals to Watkins' three over the aforementioned period and has posted better underlying numbers as well. The Bournemouth forward beats him for shots (17 vs 22), Expected Goals (xG) (3.17 vs 4.43), shots on target (SoT) (six vs seven), SiB (16 vs 21) and 'Expected Assists' (xA) (0.33 vs 0.48). As the below image from our Fixture Planner shows, Villa and Bournemouth both have excellent fixtures over the next four Gameweeks so there is not much to split them there, they are both good picks with Watkins slightly having the edge as a captaincy option for Gameweek 18.