As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.
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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 18.
It has been a torrid time for the half a million managers who sold Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) ahead of the Bournemouth fixture in Gameweek 14 when he was rumoured to be injured. Especially so for those who opted for Darwin Núñez (£7.5m). The difference between the two players over the last four Gameweeks has been a swing of 15 points.
Watkins is the fourth-highest scoring player in FPL – and the second-highest scoring forward – just 4 points behind Erling Haaland (£13.9m) who blanks in Gameweek 18. Up next is a plum home fixture against Sheffield United, in which Watkins is a primary captaincy option.
Beyond that, the Fixture Planner has Aston Villa ranked top for attacking potential between now and Gameweek 23, in which time Unai Emery’s men face newly promoted sides on a further two occasions. This makes him a great short-and-long-term pick.
If you amongst the 50% of players who doesn’t own him, you may want to change this quickly.
With City blanking in Gameweek 18, half a million managers have already sold Haaland.
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) December 20, 2023
Who are you bringing in? pic.twitter.com/JVeOCddEQS
With no fixture in Gameweek 18, and little certainty on his injury progress, FPL managers are safe to sell the Norwegian ahead of tonight’s fixture, knowing that they cannot be punished.
Haaland has missed City's last three matches with what Pep Guardiola has described as a 'stress' injury in his foot. He has flown to Jeddah with City’s FIFA Club World Cup squad but was not present during Monday's open training session.
Even when he does come back, Haaland could be phased in gently rather than playing a full 90 minutes. This casts some degree of doubt over his availability for Gameweek 19.
Beyond this – and assuming he returns to full fitness soon after – managers will want to bring him back. On this basis it may be wise not to distribute the surplus funds too widely to ensure an easy route back – although managers who own Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) or Son Heung-min (£9.8m), can release funds from either player when the two head to the African Cup of Nations and Asian Cup, respectively.
Alexander Isak (£7.6m) is the sixth-most sold player ahead of a Gameweek 18 fixture in which Newcastle faces Luton. An “ongoing groin issue” is the reason Isak is currently flagged. However, it was expected that he could be fit to face Chelsea in their midweek Carabao Cup match.
Isak did not play midweek and, in lieu of any further news, is expected back against Luton Town, a fixture which could see a big score if Newcastle turn up. Only Sheffield United have a worse defensive record than Luton, who, according to the Opta Stats Sandbox, have conceded 37.56 xG so far this season and are just one of two teams (the other being Brighton) who have not kept a clean sheet in the campaign.
It is understandable that managers would want to sell a flagged player – and according to Transfer Analytics, over 55% of Isak’s transfers out are to bring in Ollie Watkins – but selling him before Luton could make for disappointment on Saturday morning.
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