In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 17's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

Burn tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 17 with a score of 15.3. The 31-year-old took two shots in the box, both of which were 'big chances' (BC) and landed both the efforts on target. Palmer ran the show for Chelsea, he took five shots, two of which were in the box and created two BC resulting in an xFPL score of 13.4. Alexander-Arnold and Paqueta were the weekend's most creative players with six attempted assists each, the latter notched three assists despite registering a lower xFPL score than the right-back (9.5 vs 7.4). Salah was unlucky not to deliver, no player took more shots than the Egyptian (six) and he also attempted five assists. However, he had no BC involvement which meant a low xFPL score of 5.2. Kudus was the weekend's top FPL scorer with 16 points, the Ghanaian international scored both of his shots in the box and attempted just one assists which meant a relatively low xFPL score of 8.9.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics shows, Watkins tops the transfers in for Gameweek 18 with over 200,000 managers already bringing him in. Palmer and Solanke have also seen over 150,000 transfers each after finding the back of the net in Gameweek 17. Porro and Leno are the only defensive assets to make the top eight. Man. City and Brentford blank in Gameweek 18, due to the former's participation in the Club World Cup and four of the ‘top five’ sold assets; Haaland, J. Alvarez, Mbeumo and Doku are from these teams. Up top, Watkins accounts for four of the ‘top 10’ transfer combinations and nearly 50% of all forward transfers. In midfield, it is a bit more scattered with Palmer accounting for five of the ‘top 10’ combinations, but under 20% of all midfield transfers. Richarlison and Son are the other popular midfielders. In defence, all of the ‘top 10‘ defender transfer combinations involve Porro, with Tsimikas, Udogie, R. James, Trippier and Cash making way.

Kudus vs Gordon

As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Kudus and Gordon are both popular transfer targets going into Gameweek 18 and over the last six Gameweeks, the Ghanaian international has outscored Gordon by five FPL points and has averaged 6.7 FPL points per game.

Kudus has scored three goals to Gordon's two over the aforementioned period, but the latter has posted significantly better underlying numbers. He wins for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.97 vs 1.71), shots (12 vs 16), shots in the box (SiB) (five vs eight), attempted assists (eight vs 10) and BC created (two vs three). It is also worth mentioning that Kudus will be unavailable after GW20 as he will be representing Ghana in the African Cup of Nations. Based on this data, Gordon looks the better asset.

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