As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 20.

BUY: Julián Álvarez

• Cost: £6.8m
• Selected by: 28.6%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 26.6

Left: Alvarez with Haaland on the pitch, Right: Alvarez without Haaland on the pitch

With the news that Erling Haaland (£13.9m) may continue to be sidelined until January (and perhaps longer), it appears Julián Álvarez (£6.8m) will continue to be used as the main focal point of the Manchester City attack.

Even when Haaland returns, the Argentinian forward seems relatively safe from rotation under Pep Guardiola. In fact, according to Opta Stats Sandbox, he has bagged the third-highest number of minutes (1505) – just 25 less than Ederson (£5.5m) – so this move can be considered as more than a short-term transfer.

Only Haaland can beat Álvarez for FPL points (90), xFPL points (82.25), and xG (3.73) and we can see from the Opta Player Heatmaps image above, that Alvarez’s stats without Haaland show that he is stepping up to plug the gap left by his team mate.

What’s more, Gameweek 20 see City host Sheffield United in what will probably be their easiest fixture of the season.

SELL: Kaoru Mitoma

• Cost: £6.5m
• Selected by: 18.5%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 20.5

For the 2 million managers who still own Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m), time was probably up for owning the Japanese midfielder anyway. With just one win since Gameweek 14, Brighton’s season has been a shadow of what De Zerbi achieved last year.

With just one goal involvement since Gameweek 12, there was already a solid argument to depart from Mitoma, especially since he occupies one of the five precious midfield spots.

Selling him now, however, has become an absolute priority after it has emerged that he will be missing for up to six weeks, after suffering an ankle injury against Crystal Palace.

When asked about Brighton’s injury status ahead of tonight’s match against Spurs, De Zerbi said:

KEEP: Cole Palmer

• Cost: £5.6m
• Selected by: 20.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 22.1

Oddly enough, Cole Palmer (£5.6m) is the seventh most transferred out player ahead of Gameweek 20 and, according to Transfer Analytics, a quarter of these transfers are to bring in Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m).

While Bowen is a worthy transfer target, it seems counterintuitive to sell Palmer now that he has served his suspension and is about to face newly promoted Luton in Gameweek 20.

With 10 goal involvements this season, Palmer is actually one of the highest producers of FPL points per 90 minutes (6.27 – ranked fourth), and at £5.6m is one of the best value players in FPL. He has been massively influential for Chelsea, and it is hard to see him losing his place, even with Christopher Nkunku (£7.4m) now available.

By Matt Whelan

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