Yesterday, we reviewed midfielders in our mid-season analysis. In the second part of our mid-season review, we turn our attention to forwards, analysing their data from the first 20 Gameweeks and identifying key differentials for the weeks ahead.
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As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, Haaland's xFPL score of 136.36 is significantly higher than his FPL output of 123 points. He has scored 16 goals from 17.12 'Expected Goals' (xG) and given his finishing ability, that number should improve over the second half of the season.
It is interesting to note that among the aforementioned forwards, only Isak has significantly outperformed his xFPL score, registering nine points above his expected tally (119 vs. 110.42).
In contrast, most other forwards have either matched or fallen short of their xFPL scores. Watkins, in particular, stands out as one of the biggest underperformers, with just eight goals from an xG of 11.74. This data helps explain why premium forwards have been less popular this season.
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
As the below image from the Fix Comparison Matrix shows, there is merit in Isak's selection as FPL's most popular Forward. The Swedish international tops the comparison for goals (13), shots (55), shots on target (26) and attempted assists (31), while only Watkins has been afforded more 'big chances' (21) than his 20.
N. Jackson's shot volume (50) is up there with Isak (55) and Watkins (52) and although he is joint-second for shots on target (25), his poor finishing sees him only second for goals (nine).
Havertz is bottom for shots (39), shots on target (16) and 'big chances' (15) which indicates that he might not be worth the price tag.
Solanke's data is interesting, despite attempting the fewest assists (12), he is top for assists (five) and has played the most minutes of any player in the comparison (1511).
As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, Wood is top for xFPL (99.05) amongst forwards at £7.5m or below with Cunha (95.10) and Raúl (93.40) rounding up the top three.
Wood has outperformed his xG significantly, the New Zealand international has found the back of the net 12 times from an xG of just 8.08 and is one of the biggest overperformers with 114 points from an xFPL score of 99.05
Cunha is another player to have significantly outperformed his underlying numbers, he has scored 10 goals from an xG of just 4.07. However, the Brazilian international is top for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (5.94) by some distance so he does have many routes to points.
It is interesting to note that all the top three xFPL performers have scored more FPL points than their underlying data suggests.
No forward in this price bracket has taken more shots in the box than Raúl (42), if the Mexican international can stave off the minutes risk from Muniz in the second half of the season, he could be a shrewd bargain.
As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, Wissa leads the way for 'big chances' (17) and is top for xG (8.98).
Mateta will also be looking to improve his conversion rate in the second half of the season, the French international has scored just five goals from 7.99 xG
Delap is also going under the radar, the Ipswich forward is ranked fourth for 'big chances' (14) and the fact that he has matched his xG tally (7.83) with eight goals indicates that these returns are sustainable over the second half of the season.
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