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FPL Gameweek 21: Hidden Gems

Fantasy Football Fix 9 Jan. 2024

Budget Midfielders are key to enabling the big hitters in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads and in this blog the midfielders at £6.5m or under are compared using the Fix Comparison Matrix over the last eight Gameweeks. All these players are under 10% ownership.

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Pascal Gross (WOL)

One of the few regulars on the Brighton team sheet, Gross has gone somewhat under the radar with FPL managers opting for Mitoma and Adingra from the Brighton midfield. He has averaged 5.1 FPL points per game over the last eight Gameweeks and a BPS tally of 22.8 per game also indicates that he is likely to rack up bonus points whenever he does return. He is top for assists (0.6), shots on target (SoT) (1.0) and attempted assists (3.6) with a 'big chance' (BC) involvement of 1.0 per game (0.4 BC created + 0.6 BC).

Marcus Tavernier (LIV)

Tavernier has returned a healthy 5.6 FPL points per game (second) with an average of 0.3 goals per game. His shot volume of 3.0 is top of the comparison and he is also top for BC created. The fact that he is second for attempted assists as well (2.3) indicates that these returns are sustainable, with a BC involvement (0.9) similar to that of Gross.

Willian (che)

Willian missed three games over the last eight Gameweeks through injury but was back in the Fulham starting lineup in Gameweek 20, the winger tops the comparison for FPL points per game (6.0) and goals (0.6) but his shot volume (1.2) and SoT (0.8) is the lowest in the comparison which is worrying. The creativity numbers are not great either, he is third for chances created (1.6) and bottom for BC created (0.2). However, he is being afforded nearly a BC a game (0.8) which is why he has been finding the back of the net regularly.

Anthony Elanga (bre)

The new manager bounce is in full swing at Forest and Elanga has been one of the main beneficiaries. A large chunk of the sample size under consideration was under Cooper though so the data must be taken with a pinch of salt. He is fourth for FPL points per game (4.6), third for shots (2.3) and fourth for chances created (1.4). The BC involvement numbers are very healthy (0.6 BC created + 0.4 BC) and the 21-year-old is thriving under new boss Nuno.

Leon Bailey (eve)

Bailey has become a regular on the Villa team sheet, with Emery often preferring him over Diaby. The Jamaican international is bottom of the comparison for FPL points per game (4.5) and the underlying numbers are not great, he is fourth for shots (2.0) and fifth for chances created (1.3). The BC involvements (0.3) are low as well. Despite these numbers, he has shown explosive potential in the past and could still be a great differential.

Who has the best Fixtures?

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, from the aforementioned five players' teams only Brighton and Villa make the top eight for 'Attack Difficulty'. Brighton's run in particular is brilliant with home games against Wolves, Palace and Everton along with away trips to Luton and Sheff. Utd. Villa's schedule is a bit mixed, they are much stronger at home and their tougher games against Newcastle and Man. Utd. are at Villa Park.

Fulham's run is better when the Chelsea game next weekend is out of the way, the Cottagers then play Everton, Burnley and Bournemouth. Forest and Bournemouth are 18th and 19th but are currently two of the form sides in the league.

What do the Projections say?

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm feature shows, Willian (23.8), Gross (22.3) and Tavernier (21.2) feature in the top 10 projected midfielders at £6.5m or under. D. Luiz (24.0) also meets the criteria but he was not included in the comparison as his virtues do not need extolling. Bailey (20.3) and Elanga (20.3) are also not far behind.

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