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FPL Gameweek 21: Liverpool Deep Dive

Fantasy Football Fix 8 Jan. 2024

Liverpool sit three points clear at the top of the Premier League table and with Salah not available due to his participation in the African Cup of Nations, there are plenty of differential options available for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers to climb the ranks. In this blog, the data for Liverpool assets are compared over the season. 'Per 90' numbers are used since many players like Jota missed games as a result of injury. Certain players who have played less than 20 minutes have been excluded. Salah has also been omitted.

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As the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, Darwin has the highest 'per 90' xFPL score of 7.17. He is top for shots 4.66, shots on target (SoT) (1.93), 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.82) and 'big chances' (BC) (1.69). The Uruguayan international should see more gametime with Liverpool having fewer options to choose from in attack with their talisman Salah out of the picture. Jota's numbers also standout, he is top for goals (0.67) and FPL points (7.65), while he is second for both shots in the box (SiB) (2.82) and SoT (1.21).

Gakpo is ahead of Jota for BC (0.66 vs 0.54) and marginally behind for xG (0.47 vs 0.48). He is third for SiB (2.10), ahead of Diaz (1.94). The Colombian international is fourth for most metrics, with his BC (0.39) and xG (0.28) numbers significantly lower than the aforementioned trio.

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In terms of creativity, Alexander-Arnold is significantly ahead of the rest with 2.94 attempted assists 'per 90', the injured Tsimikas is in second (2.03), with Jota in third (1.88). Diaz (1.71) fares better than Darwin (1.53) and Gakpo (1.11) for chances created. However, when comparing 'Expected Assists' (xA), Darwin is in second (0.30), ahead of Jota (0.22) and Diaz (0.15). While Darwin creates fewer chances then his attacking counterparts, his rate of BC creation is just behind Alexander-Arnold (0.72 vs 0.56).

Liverpool's fixture run

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner feature shows, Liverpool are ranked top for 'Attack Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks, but it is worth noting that their Gameweek 26 fixture against Luton could potentially be postponed if the Reds make it to the final of the Carabao Cup. The fixtures against Bournemouth, Chelsea and Burnley look particularly enticing, and it is possible that the Merseyside outfit are without Salah for this period.

What do the Projections Say?

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm shows, Liverpool are ranked second for Projected Goals (12.8) just behind Man. City (13.3) for the next six Gameweeks, so investing in their attack does seem prudent.

Alexander-Arnold (30.6) is the highest projected scoring defender over the aforementioned period, but none of Liverpool's midfielders make the top 20, while the algorithm adjusts to account for Salah's absence and no doubt more assured minutes for the likes of Jota and Diaz. Darwin (21.5) is the ninth-highest projected forward but as the data in this blog shows, he has the highest ceiling of all the attacking options available.

To summarize, Darwin looks like the best attacker to own in Salah's absence but FPL managers should keep an eye on Jota who has delivered excellent numbers whenever he has been on the team sheet. In defence, Alexander-Arnold remains the top defensive asset in the game.

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