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FPL Gameweek 22: Man. City Deep Dive

Fantasy Football Fix 16 Jan. 2024

Man. City's Double Gameweek 25 has been confirmed with the reigning Champions playing Chelsea and Brentford at the Etihad. In this blog, their numbers are compared over the last eight Gameweeks to determine the best picks in attack and in defence.

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The Attack

As the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, J. Alvarez tops the table for xFPL (38.32) over Man. City's last seven league matches and has started every one of them. The Argentinian international is top for shots in the box (SiB), 'big chances' (BC) and 'Expected Goals' (xG) (3.91). It is worth mentioning that Haaland featured for just two of these seven games.

Foden is top for shots (21) and has landed just one fewer attempt on target (eight) but just 11 of these attemps have been in the box and he has been afforded just two 'big chances'. He is joint-top alongside J. Alvarez for chances created (18 each) and is top for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (2.74).

Bernardo is their joint-top scorer alongside Grealish (three) over this period, The Portuguese international is third for SiB but has registered just 1.39 xG. The chance creation numbers are healthy, he is third for chances created (13) and xA (1.86). Grealish has notched just 360 minutes over the aforementioned period and with Doku now fit, he does not appear to be a reliable option.

De Bruyne has only played 21 minutes and notched a goal and assist, the player and Guardiola's comments indicate that his minutes will continue to be managed but he has shown he can haul even off the bench.

The Defence

Walker has played the most minutes (1777) of any Man. City player this season and has started every league game for Man. City. He notched just his second assist of the campaign against Newcastle but has created just three chances over their last seven league matches. Nevertheless, he does appear to be the best route into their defence.

Gvardiol appears to be the next best option with 563 minutes over the last eight Gameweeks. He has offered a bit of goal threat as well with eight shots and three attempts on target, top amongst their defenders.

The Fixtures

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Man. City are top for both 'Attack Difficulty' and 'Defence Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks which emphasises the need to invest in their assets.

They have four home games over the next four Gameweeks and it is worth remembering that they were the league's top scorers in home matches last season with 60 goals at the Etihad in 19 matches. They are second only Villa (2.90) for goals scored per home game this season (2.67).

What do the Projections say?

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm shows, Haaland (41.3) is top amongst all players for projected points over the next six Gameweeks, assuming he is fit. Foden (29.3) is their top projected midfield asset and is still available at an affordable price of £8.0m. J. Alvarez (27.1) is close behind but it remains to be seen what impact De Bruyne's return has on his minutes if Haaland is indeed declared fit.

In defence, despite the double in Gameweek 26 Walker (21.6) is only the ninth highest projected defender over the next six Gameweeks. No other Man. City defenders make the top 20 due to the constant rotation amongst their centre-backs.

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