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FPL Gameweek 22: Positional Review - Defenders

Fantasy Football Fix 19 Jan. 2024

The Premier League season is just past the halfway point and in this blog the numbers of various defensive assets are compared for the season so far, to determine the best picks going forward.

Premium Options: £5.5m and over

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As the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, the pool of Premium defenders is quite small this season, especially with Robertson injured. The xFPL numbers indicate that Alexander-Arnold (105.72), Porro (103.51) and Trippier (101.61) are in a league of their own with all three full-backs responsible for a large chunk of their team's set-pieces.

Alexander-Arnold (29) and Porro (34) have taken a significant number of shots, with Trippier only taking six, so this duo offer a combination of goals and assists threat, despite their shot on target (SoT) numbers still being on the lower side (four and five). Trippier has attempted the most assists (54) but his 'Expected Assists' (xA) (5.98) are not vastly superior to the aforementioned two (5.27 and 5.70). Porro in particular looks outstanding value given his price but with Maddison's return around the corner, he may lose some of his set-piece duties.

Centre-backs usually offer more security of starts than fullbacks, however, Rúben has played the least minutes (1387) apart from Robertson (720). The Portuguese international has also taken only 10 shots which means he does not offer the upside to justify the rotation risk.

Virgil's shot numbers are impressive with 22 shots and seven SoT, he is perhaps going under the radar for a team that has conceded the fewest goals (18) in the league. White and Saliba have similar goal threat numbers but the former has the edge for chances created (16 vs four). Timber's return is not too far off, however, and White could become a rotation risk.

Budget options: Below £5.5m

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Walker is top for xFPL (86.18) amongst the budget defenders, the right-back has been unfortunate only to register two assists from 16 chances created. Having started every game for the reigning Champions this season, he looks like a good pick with their upcoming double in mind.

The next four spots are dominated by centre-backs with Cash (80.79) occupying sixth place despite just 1283 minutes. The right-back's numbers were strong in the first few months and he is still top amongst the budget defenders for shots (24) and SoT (10). However, the Villain's full-back has been rotated recently by Emery and cannot be recommended going forward.

Doughty's numbers stand out, he is top amongst the budget defenders for attempted assists (36) and xA (3.56) while he is sixth for FPL points (63). Estupiñan is second for xA (2.38) despite just 630 minutes, with Brighton's schedule free from European commitments for a while he looks an outstanding option.

Who has the best Fixtures?

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Man. City are top for 'Defence Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks, with their double in Gameweek 25 now confirmed. Villa's schedule also improves now, and Konsa is third for xFPL amongst the budget defenders. Brighton's fixtures also emphasise why Estupiñan is such a great pick. FPL managers who find Porro's price a stretch too far should look to Udogie, with Spurs having a good run as well. Alexander-Arnold is likely to be back on FPL radars once he returns from injury.

What do the Projections say?

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As the above image from our Fix Algorithm shows, the premium quartet of Alexander-Arnold (31.9), Virgil (25.5), Trippier (23.8) and Porro (23.8) are projected to score well with Estupiñan running them close (22.7). Walker (21.6) and Gabriel (21.3) also fare well amongst the budget options.

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