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FPL Gameweek 22: Positional Review - Forwards

Fantasy Football Fix 24 Jan. 2024

The Premier League season is just past the halfway point and in the third part of this series, the numbers of various forwards is compared for the season so far to determine the best picks.

Premium Options: £7.0m and over

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With only four forwards at £8.0m or over, the criteria is expanded to include forwards in the £7.0m - £8.0m bracket as well. As the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, Haaland is top for xFPL (113.58) as expected with 14 goals. He has been pictured back in training for Man. City and could feature against Burnley in Gameweek 22.

The highly owned Watkins (107.83) is close behind with Solanke (96.98) and Darwin (96.63) not too far off. Solanke (67) is top for shots with only Darwin (10.96) registering a higher 'Expected Goals' (xG) tally than his 10.86.

J. Álvarez has scored just six goals from 58 shots (fourth), but the Argentinian international has been the most creative forward with 47 attempted assists. His minutes are potentially at risk with De Bruyne and Haaland returning to the team.

Isak and Wilson have scored 17 goals combined and now that Newcastle are free of European commitments, the forward position should see less rotation. Isak in particular looks a great differential option, he has found the back of the net 10 times and notched 10.67 xG from just 37 attempts.

Toney has featured just once since his return from a ban and it is worth remembering that this is a player who scored 20 goals last season and has a double coming up in Gameweek 26.

Budget Forwards: Under £7.0m

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N. Jackson has notched an xG of 10.61 which is on par with some of the premium options, but has found the back of the net just seven times. Cunha has been a key player for Wolves but the Brazilian international has registered just 5.72 xG in 21 matches which is off-putting. João Pedro has been seeing more game time with Brighton's injuries and a large chunk of his 7.13 xG is down to penalty duties. Calvert-Lewin is another one who has been wasteful, with the Everton forward bagging just thrice from 6.83 xG. Wood is perhaps one to watch in the second half of the season under new boss Nuno, the New Zealand international has scored five goals in his last four appearances and has eight to his name so far.

Who has the Best Fixtures?

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Man. City are top for 'Attack Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks, Haaland will be near essential for FPL managers if he is back to full fitness. Liverpool's excellent run should also put Darwin on the radar. Villa's excellent run of fixtures means Watkis is worth persisting with. Newcastle and Brentford's excellent run means Toney and Isak are worth considering as well.

What do the Projections say?

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Haaland (32.5) is predicted to be the top scoring forward by our Player Points Projections even if he misses the Gameweek 22 fixture with Watkins (29.4) in second. Interestingly, Solanke (26.8) is still projected to outscore Isak (24.0), Darwin (22.3) and Toney (22.0) despite Bournemouth's fixtures taking a turn for the worse.

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