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FPL Gameweek 22: Teams' Attack/Defence Review

Fantasy Football Fix 26 Jan. 2024

The Premier League season is just past the halfway point and in the final part of this series, the attack and defence numbers of all Premier League teams is compared for the season so far to determine the teams to target.

Attack

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As the above image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature, sorted by 'Expected Goals' (xG), shows Liverpool have been the league's best attack with an xG of 47.58. They are the second highest scorers (47) with only Man. City (48) more prolific. It is worth mentioning that Man. City, Brenford, Bournemouth and Luton have played a game fewer than the rest of the league.

Man. City are only third for 'big chances' (BC) (63) with Newcastle (72) on top, the Magpies have been especially prolific at home with only Liverpool (29.37) registering a higher xG in home matches than their 28.29.

Spurs (44) are third for goals scored and shots in the box (SiB) (230), they have significantly overperformed their xG of 37.60 (seventh). Their cross town rivals Arsenal are fifth for goals scored (42) and BC (58) but just 15 of these goals have come in their away matches (ninth) where they are ranked 10th for BC (22).

Sheff. Utd. (17) and Burnley (21) are the division's lowest scorers, with Man. Utd. (24) also faring poorly. The Red Devils are ranked eighth for shots (292) but just 14th for BC (36) which sums up their attacking woes this season.

Chelsea are ranked eighth for goals scored (35) but fourth for BC (62) and fifth for xG (42.21). If Pochettino's side can find a more clinical touch in front of goal, they could be a shrewd investment destination for FPL managers over the second half of the season.

Defence

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Arsenal have been the league's best defence in terms of underlying numbers with an xGC of 20.18, only Liverpool (18) have conceded fewer goals than the Gunners. Despite being fourth for shots conceded (238) and third for xGC (26.79), the Merseyside outfit are joint-top for clean sheets (eighth).

Man. City are second for xGC (21.27) but have kept just five clean sheets, often conceding just the odd goal. Villa are fourth for goals conceded (27) but have also kept just five clean sheets and are ranked fifth for xGC (27.71).

At the other end of the table, Sheff. Utd. (366) and Luton (44.36) are the bottom two for xGC with West Ham surprisingly in 18th (39.01). The Hammers have kept five clean sheets despite being 19th for shots conceded (356), which explains why Areola has been such a strong goalkeeper option.

Spurs are 13th for xGC (34.97) and 12th for shots conceded but have kept five clean sheets (sixth). Everton have done well defensively under Dyche, the Toffees have kept seven clean sheets (third) and are seventh for xGC (31.56).

Which teams have the best fixtures?

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Man. City and Brentford feature favourably for Fixture Difficulty over the next six Gameweeks with their Double Gameweek confirmed in Gameweek 25. Liverpool and Villa should be backed at both ends of the pitch as well while Newcastle should get their campaign back on track with their run after Villa looking particularly enticing.

At the other end, Chelsea's schedule takes a turn for the worse with the London side facing Liverpool, Palace and Man. City in the next four Gameweeks along with a possible blank in Gameweek 26 due to their progression to the Carabao Cup Final.

What do the Projections Say?

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As the above image from our Predicted Points & Stats tool shows, Man. City (13.8) and Liverpool (13.3) are significantly ahead of the other teams for Projected Goals scored with Arsenal (10.9), Brighton (10.9), Newcastle (10.8) and Spurs (10.5) bunched together

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It is a similar story when it comes to clean sheets with Man. City (2.4) and Liverpool (2.3) on top. Palace (1.8), Villa (2.0) and Newcastle (1.8) have struggled for clean sheets recently but are backed to come good.

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