In this blog, the first part of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 21's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

Palmer tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for the first part of Gameweek 21. The 21-year-old took three shots, one of which was a 'big chance' (BC) and attempted one assist to notch an xFPL score of 10.0. Porro caught the eye once again, the weekend's most creative player. The right-back attempted five assists and took 13 corners which helped him to an xFPL score of 8.2. De Bruyne played limited minutes but posted impressive numbers, he attempted three assists, one of which was a BC and scored from one of his two attempts, registering an xFPL score of 7.4. No player attempted more shots (six) than J. Alvarez, and the Argentinian international also attempted four assists but had just one BC involvement overall which meant a low xFPL score of just 5.4.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, De Bruyne is the most transferred-in player with nearly 500,000 managers bringing him in off the back of his 12-point FPL haul. Palmer, Porro and Foden are also popular but the trio have amassed less than 200,000 transfers combined, with the majority of the traffic going to De Bruyne. The top five sold players Salah, Son, Haaland, Bowen and Alexander-Arnold are all currently doubts going into Gameweek 22. Amongst forwards, the traffic is pretty split with Alvarez, Isak and Toney all seeing transfers in. In midfield, De Bruyne accounts for seven of the top 10 transfer combinations with Bowen, Foden, Son, Salah and Saka making way. In defence, Estupiñan is popular with the Ecuadorian international occupying eight of the 10 defender transfer combinations, which has also seen him rise in price overnight to £5.1m.

Foden vs J. Alvarez

As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Foden and J. Alvarez have played every minute for Man. City over the last six Gameweeks, with Foden scoring slightly higher (29 vs 24). With Man. City's double confirmed in Gameweek 25, both assets are of interest to FPL managers.

J. Alvarez has scored two goals to Foden's one and has better goal threat numbers, despite both players taking 19 shots. The Argentinian international is significantly ahead for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.98 vs 3.85) and shots in the box (SiB) (nine vs 14). Foden has the edge for creativity, the England international has notched three assists to J. Alvarez' one and has created more chances (15 vs 11). Foden has also created better quality chances, as shown by the 'Expected Assists' (xA) tally (2.24 vs 1.13).

With De Bruyne back fit and Haaland also nearing fitness, there are doubts about both player's long term gametime by the time Gameweek 25 comes around. On the basis of these numbers, it has hard to split the two with penalty duties for J. Alvarez possibly edging it while Haaland isn't on the pitch.