In this blog, the second part of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 21's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.
Gabriel tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 21 with a score of 12.8. The Brazilian international took three shots in the box (SiB), two of which were classified as 'big chances' (BC). Palmer, who played the weekend prior, now features in second with an xFPL score of 10.0, the 21-year-old landed two shots on target (SoT) and was afforded one BC - the penalty which he scored. The Gameweek's highest FPL scorer with 19 points, Jota, notched an xFPL score of just 7.6 as neither of his two SiB were classified as BC but he did create one. Darwin was close behind with an xFPL score of 7.4, the Uruguayan international scored both BCs he was afforded. Saka was a popular captaincy option but his numbers were poor, he took only two shots, none of which were in the box and attempted four assists, just one of which was classified as a BC created. His low xFPL score of 4.5 will have many FPL managers wondering whether his time is up in their FPL squads.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.
As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, De Bruyne continues to be bought in droves, with Toney and Jota also popular acquisitions after their exploits in the second half of Gameweek 21. Salah's injury at the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) has meant that he has now been sold by over 300,000 FPL managers and that number is only expected to go up over the coming days. The forward transfer combinations continue to confound FPL managers with Haaland to Alvarez and the reverse transfer taking up the top two combinations. Toney is the other popular acquisition, accounting for five of the top 10 combinations. In midfield, all the traffic continues to move towards De Bruyne, with the Belgian occupying nine of the top 10 midfielder transfer combinations. In defence, Estupiñan is the flavour of the week after the left-back notched his third consecutive Gameweek where he has either managed clean sheet or attacking points after returning from injury In Gameweek 19.
As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, after a strong start to the season Trippier's form has fallen off with the right-back returning just 16 points over the last eight Gameweeks. In the meantime, Porro has racked up over double (33) FPL points, at an average of 4.1 FPL points per game.
As the numbers above show, Porro (17) blows Trippier (three) out of the water for goal threat, but 0.85 'Expected Goals' (xG) for the Spanish international is not something to get too excited about.
Trippier's main strength has always been his creativity and, currently, he is even beaten by Porro for that metric, with the latter creating more chances (19 vs 22) and notching a higher 'Expected Assists' (xA) tally (1.98 vs 2.86) total. However, it is worth mentioning that with Maddison's return, Porro could lose a large chunk of set-piece duties to the England international, which is likely to affect these numbers going forward.
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