In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 26's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

Havertz tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 26 with a score of 10.8. The German international took two shots in the box (SiB), both of which were classified as ‘big chances’ (BC) and also attempted one assist. Foden continued his electric form with a goal against Bournemouth, the 23-year-old took four shots and attempted four assists leading to an xFPL score of 10.5. Hattrick hero Bowen put himself on the FPL radar again, he scored from all three of his SiB, two of which were classified as BC and notched an xFPL score of 9.9. Gross was the weekend’s most creative player with six attempted assists, he had no BC involvements which meant a low xFPL score of 6.7. No player took more shots than Kudus (six) but just two of these attempts were in the box. However, he did create a BC for Bowen which led to an xFPL score of 4.6. The most popular captain Haaland was afforded three BC, more than any other player but could not find the back of the net. He registered a paltry xFPL score of just 5.3.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, despite blanking in Gameweek 26, Solanke is the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 27 with over 200,000 FPL managers bringing him in already. Salah is a popular target as well despite some concerns over his fitness. De Bruyne has been shipped out by over 200,000 FPL managers after the Belgian international was on the bench for Man. City’s last two league fixtures. The injured Diogo J., Højlund and Porro are also making way. Solanke accounts for seven of the top 10 forward transfer combinations with J. Alvarez, Darwin, Toney and Højlund making way. In midfield, De Bruyne and Diogo J. dominate the transfers out with Salah, Son and Saka the primary beneficiaries. In defence, planning for Double Gameweek 28 seems to be the priority with Senesi featuring in five of the top 10 defender transfer combinations.

D. Luiz vs Bailey

Villa midfielders are popular targets after big hauls in Gameweek 26 with the transfer traffic largely heading towards D. Luiz over Bailey. As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, the Brazilian has outscored Bailey by just three points (36 to 33) over the last six Gameweeks with the Jamaican international playing nearly 100 minutes fewer.

A closer look at the underlying numbers shows D. Luiz ahead for ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) (1.43 vs 1.08) despite taking four fewer shots (eight vs 12). The Brazilian has landed more shots on target (SoT) (five vs four) as well. While it is similar for chance creation (13 vs 12), Bailey’s higher ‘Expected Assists’ (xA) (1.54 vs 2.30) tally indicates he is creating better quality chances. Both look excellent picks for Villa’s great run of fixtures but the security of minutes with D. Luiz around Villa’s European schedule gives him the edge.