With Cunha suspended and Mateta a potential injury doubt, this blog compares the best forward replacements for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 28.
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As the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, Wissa (54.25) is top for xFPL amongst forwards over the last eight Gameweeks.
The Democratic Republic of Congo international is joint-top for 'big chances' (11), 'Expected Goals' (xG) (6.82) and second for shots in the box (23) over that period.
Mateta (54.06) and Cunha (36.50) feature in second and eighth respectively for xFPL scores, while Watkins (43.31) and Isak (43.01) are not options for FPL managers if they plan to save their Free Hit beyond Gameweek 29.
Some of the other forward options are compared in more detail using the Fix Comparison Matrix below, based on per-game averages from Gameweek 20 to 27.
Wood tops the comparison for FPL points per game (8.0) and is a reliable starter, averaging 87 minutes per match. The New Zealand international is a key player for Forest and one of the first names on the team sheet.
He has nearly averaged a goal per game (0.9) over the last eight Gameweeks and is joint-top for FPL assists (0.3). However, his shot volume (1.9) is the lowest in the comparison, meaning he has relied on clinical finishing. Despite this, he still averages 0.9 'big chances' per game, which is a solid output.
The 33-year-old is also a strong captaincy contender in Blank Gameweek 29, when Forest travel to Ipswich.
Wissa’s FPL points per game (5.3) ranks third in the comparison, but his underlying numbers are impressive.
He is second for shots (3.8) and shots on target (1.9), while only Haaland (1.6) has recorded more ‘big chances’ per game than his 1.4. He also leads the comparison for ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) with 0.9 per game.
However, Wissa’s fixtures take a turn for the worse after the international break, as Brentford face Newcastle, Chelsea, and Arsenal between Gameweeks 30 and 32.
Raúl tops the comparison for shots (4.0) but the fact that he is fourth for average minutes played (71.5) highlights the obvious problem; Muniz is always a threat to his gametime.
Despite the high shot volume, he is bottom for goals per game (0.4) and attempted assists (0.6) which limits his appeal.
As the below image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings shows, Fulham are 19th for 'Attack Difficulty' over the next six Gameweeks which is off putting.
Haaland has scored six goals over the last eight Gameweeks, despite missing the Liverpool fixture in Gameweek 26 due to injury.
The Norwegian is joint-top for goals (0.9) and assists (0.3) while no player in the comparison has recorded more shots on target (2.1). He also leads the way for attempted assists (1.3) and ‘big chances’ (1.6), with only Wissa (0.9) outperforming him for ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) at 0.8.
Haaland is a strong captaincy option for Gameweeks 29 and 30, as Man City face Brighton and Leicester, both at the Etihad.
Beto only became a regular starter for Everton in Gameweek 23 following Calvert-Lewin’s injury but has since started every match, playing 90 minutes in each of the last four.
He has scored five goals over the last six Gameweeks, and his underlying stats are solid. He ranks fourth for shots (2.0) and third for shots on target (1.4), while no forward has been afforded more than his eight ‘big chances’ since Gameweek 23. He also tops the table for ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) among forwards over that period, with 3.22.
However, Everton rank 18th for ‘Attack Difficulty,’ with their fixtures worsening after Gameweek 29. Like Wissa, Beto is a strong short-term option for FPL managers planning to Wildcard after Gameweek 29.
As the below image from our Predicted Points & Stats tool shows, Haaland (39.1) is significantly ahead of the competition with only Wood (33.8) and Wissa (27.0) the players to feature from the comparison in the top six.
It is interesting to note that in Gameweek 29, there is not much to split Haaland (7.0) and Wood (6.3), which further cements Wood as the best replacement option for FPL managers looking to avoid multiple hits to bring in the Norwegian international.
Wissa (27.0) appears to be the next best pick but the projections tail off after Gameweek 28 so he looks to be a short-term pick.
Beto's minutes (12.4) still count against him which is the case for Raúl (21.2) as well.
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