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FPL Gameweek 28: Who to Target?

FPL Who To Target
Fantasy Football Fix 28 Feb. 2025

Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 28

In this blog, we highlight the top performers from the past Gameweek, break down the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players for your squad this week.

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Expected FPL Points Review - A look at the stats

As the below image shows, I. Sarr tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 27 with a score of 13.7. The Senegalese international was joint-top for shots inside the box (four) and 'big chances' (three) while only Luis Díaz (five), Enzo and Kluivert (six each) attempted more assists than his four.

Fantasy Premier League Stats Gameweek 27

Palmer was a popular captaincy pick, but disappointed his backers with just three FPL points. However, his underlying numbers indicate that they were unlucky, no player attempted more shots (three) or landed more attempts on target (three), while only Haaland and I. Sarr (three) were afforded more 'big chances' than his two. The England international registered an xFPL score of 7.9.

Salah had a quiet game by his standards, the 32-year-old took three shots in the box, none of which were 'big chances', and attempted four assists. Two of these were classified as 'big chances' created by Opta which meant a decent xFPL score of 6.5.

Kluivert bagged a 10-point FPL return but and was joint-top for attempted assists (six), but it is worth mentioning that the Dutchman did not attempt a single shot in the box while his team-mate O. Dango registered four. The duo registered xFPL scores of 6.4 and 7.3 respectively.

Haaland showed signs he is getting back to his best, no player was afforded more 'big chances' than the Norwegian international and he landed all three of his attempts on target, en route to an xFPL score of 8.8.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As shown in the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature, Mateta is currently the most popular transfer ahead of Gameweek 28 with nearly 150,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

It is worth noting that after the Gameweek 28 fixture against Ipswich, the French international blanks in Gameweek 29 due to their scheduled opponent Newcastle's fixture in the Carabao Cup final.

Fantasy Premier Transfer Activity Gameweek 28

Muñoz has racked up one goal, three assists and three clean sheets over Palace's last six league matches which explains why the Colombian international has been bought by over 100,000 FPL managers.

Cunha blanked against Fulham but remains the most popular forward acquisition; Szoboszlai and Kluivert round off the top five after their hauls in Gameweek 27.

Palmer's blank against Southampton was the last straw for many FPL managers, with over 100,000 parting ways with the England international. Chelsea play Leicester at Stamford Bridge next so this decision could come back to bite them.

Isak missed out against Liverpool with a groin injury, while Robinson only featured as a substitute against Wolves, leading several managers to part ways with the duo.

Wood and Amad are also among the top five most sold players.

A look at the Top 10 Forward transfer combinations shows that Watkins to Cunha (12.9%) is the most popular transfer combination across all positions this week. The Brazilian international and Mateta feature in every one of the top 10 forward transfer combinations, as shown below.

Top 10 forwards' FPL transfer combinations

The Top 10 Midfield transfer combinations is dominated by Kluivert, with the Dutchman appearing in half of the top 10. Mbeumo, Bowen, Neto and Son are the other popular acquisitions with Rogers, Gordon, Semenyo, O. Dango and Palmer making way.

The Top 10 Defender transfer combinations indicate that wingbacks are the flavour of the week with Robinson, Aina, Digne and Hall making way for Muñoz and Aït-Nouri.

Best Mid-Priced forward - Mateta vs Cunha

As shown in the image below from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature, Mateta has been on fire with 48 points over the last six Gameweeks compared to 31 for Cunha.

Fantasy Premier League Points Comparison Mateta vs Cunha

The Frenchman has averaged 8.0 FPL points per game, with the Brazilian notching 5.2, both players have played consistent minutes over that period.

Mateta vs Cunha FPL stats

As the stats from the above image show, Cunha is ahead for shot volume with more shots (13 vs 28), shots on target (10 vs 12) and shots in the box (11 vs 14), but Mateta is significantly ahead for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (3.90 vs 2.78) which indicates that the Frenchman is being afforded better quality chances.

It is a similar story with creativity as well, Cunha has attempted more assists (seven vs nine) but Mateta is ahead for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (1.10 vs 0.96).

For FPL managers looking to Free Hit in Gameweek 29, Mateta appears to be the ideal pick with fixtures against Ipswich and Southampton either side of the blank. For managers looking for a forward that plays in Gameweek 29, Cunha is an outstanding option.


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