In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 28's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

B. Fernandes tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 28 so far with a score of 13.6. The Portuguese international took four shots in the box (SiB) and also created five chances. No player took more shots over the weekend than Muniz (seven), the 22-year-old could be a canny purchase for FPL managers looking to Free Hit in Gameweek 29. However, none of his attempts were classified as 'big chances' (BC) which meant a low xFPL score of 4.5. Iwobi is another player worthy of consideration, the Nigerian international was top for chances created (seven) and also took two SiB, leading to an xFPL score of 11.0. Son notched a massive 17-point-haul but the Korean scored from his only SiB and had both of his chances created converted which meant a relatively low xFPL score of 8.9. Palmer was another popular asset who delivered for his owners with 13 FPL points but just one of his three attempts was from inside the penalty area and none of his three attempted assists were classifed as BC created which meant a low xFPL score of 6.8.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Spurs assets are in vogue with Son, Porro, Maddison and Romero all popular acquisitions ahead of Blank Gameweek 29. Trippier, Solanke, De Bruyne, Saka and Haaland who all do not have a fixture in Blank Gameweek 29 are the ones making way. Toney and Morris take up nearly 70% of the forward transfer combinations with Haaland and Solanke the most popular sells. In midfield, the transfers are a bit more scattered with Son, Maddison and Bowen the targets. Saka is the most sold with De Bruyne close behind. In defence, it is largely the Arsenal duo of Gabriel and Saliba making way with Porro, Doughty and Reguilón the beneficiaries.

Bowen vs Maddison

As the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, Bowen has outscored Maddison by 11 FPL points over the last six Gameweeks but the former has played 110 minutes more. It is also worth mentioning that a large chunk of Bowen's points came in one single fixture where he bagged a hattrick against Brentford.

A look at the Average Statistics per 90 minutes shows that Bowen has averaged a higher 'Expected Goals' (xG) per game (0.23 vs 0.17) and has also taken more shots (2.00 vs 1.47). The majority of Bowen's shots have also been in the box (1.67 vs 0.63). A more creative player, Maddison naturally has created more chances (1.00 vs 1.67) but it is interesting to note that Bowen's 'Expected Assists' (xA) tally (0.24 vs 0.21) is marginally higher. There is some uncertainty as to Bowen's centre forward role with Antonio and Ings both impressing after coming on against Burnley which would likely make Maddison the better pick.