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FPL Gameweek 30: Who to Target?

FPL Who To Target
Fantasy Football Fix 17 March 2025

Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 30

In this blog, we highlight the top performers from the past Gameweek, break down the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players for your squad this week.

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Expected FPL Points Review - A look at the stats

As the below image shows, O'Brien tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 29 with a score of 9.7. The 23-year-old scored from one of his two attempts on target and attempted three assists.

Fantasy Premier League Stats Gameweek 30

The Gameweek's top scorer with 17 FPL points B. Fernandes attempted four shots, none of which were classified as 'big chances' by Opta and created six chances, leading to a relatively low xFPL score of 7.7.

Solanke and Evanilson were joint-top for shots in the box (four each). Neither forward scored from their only attempt on target but the latter did create three chances compared to none for the former, which meant a higher xFPL score of 5.8 for Evanilson versus 5.0 for Solanke.

Haaland was a popular captaincy pick and took three shots in the box. However, the penalty was the only 'big chance' and shot on target from the Norwegian international which meant a low xFPL score of just 6.7.

Wood was also a popular pick, but the New Zealand international posted disappointing numbers. He tested the keeper with both of his attempts from inside the box, but neither were classified as 'big chances' and he notched an xFPL score of just 2.6.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As shown in the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature, B. Fernandes is currently the most transferred in player with nearly 100,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

Fantasy Premier Transfer Activity Gameweek 30

Marmoush is also a popular pick after his double-digit haul against Brighton. Meanwhile Muñoz, Isak and I. Sarr, who all blanked in Gameweek 29, are also being bought. This is perhaps with an eye on their upcoming double in Gameweek 32.

Palmer was absent from the Chelsea squad due to injury, which has seen over 150,000 FPL managers part ways with the England international already. Alexander-Arnold and Hall missed out as well, while Wood and Beto's blanks have also caused sales for the duo.

A look at the Top 10 Forward transfer combinations shows that all the traffic is directed towards Marmoush, Isak and Haaland with no other forward featuring in the top 10. Beto, Wissa, Wood and Cunha are the players making way.

As the below image from the Top 10 Midfield transfer combinations shows, Palmer to I. Sarr (13.1%) is the most popular transfer in midfield with Palmer to B. Fernandes (9.3%) in second. The other transfers are fairly scattered with Salah, Kluivert, J. Murphy, and Bowen coming in for O. Dango and Mbeumo.

Top 10 midfield FPL transfer combinations

The Top 10 Defender transfer combinations indicates that Muñoz is the flavour of the week with five of the top 10 combinations involving the Colombian international. Alexander-Arnold, Robinson, Hall and Mykolenko are the players making way, while Gvardiol, Milenković and Kerkez are also popular buys.

Haaland vs Marmoush - Is Haaland worth the extra money?

Points Comparison Haaland vs Marmoush

As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, despite playing fewer minutes (447 vs 407) over the last six Gameweeks, Marmoush (36) has racked up eight FPL points more than Haaland (28) at an average of 6.0 FPL points per game versus 5.6 for the Norwegian international.

Stats Comparison Haaland vs Marmoush

As the above image shows, Marmoush has scored more goals (three vs four) than Haaland despite being significantly lower for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (2.87 vs 1.04).

However, while the Egyptian international has attempted more shots (11 vs 12) and landed the same number of shots on target (six), just four of his efforts have been from within the penalty area compared to 10 for Haaland.

Marmoush is also the more creative of the two with seven attempted assists versus four for Haaland.

Based on the above data, Marmoush is rivalling Haaland in terms of the best Man. City attacking option, but minutes remain a concern. However, with the Manchester side out of the Champions League, Marmoush could become a regular feature on the Man. City team sheet.


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