Who To Target for Fantasy Premier League 2024/25 Gameweek 33

There's still a game to go, with Newcastle facing Palace in Double Gameweek 32, but we've gone early so we can we can highlight the top performers from the Gameweek so far, break down the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players for your squad this week.

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Expected FPL Points Review - A look at the stats

As the below image shows, João Pedro tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 32 so far with a score of 13.8. The Brazilian international converted two of his three shots in the box and also attempted five assists, two of which were classified as 'big chances' created by Opta.

De Bruyne racked up a 12-point FPL haul to remind FPL managers of his pedigree. The Belgian international took three shots in the box, two of which were classified as 'big chances' and also created two 'big chances' for his teammates, leading to an xFPL score of 11.5.

No player was afforded more 'big chances' (four) than McAtee, the youngster converted one of his four attempts in the box and notched an xFPL score of 11.0.

Barnes has been the standout Double Gameweek Asset with an FPL score of 15. The 27-year-old attempted two shots in the box, both of which were 'big chances' and also created a 'big chance', adding up to an xFPL score of 11.3.

Marmoush was unlucky not to return more than seven FPL points for his owners, the Egyptian international took three shots in the box, all of which were 'big chances' and also created two 'big chances' en route to an xFPL score of 10.4.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early FPL Transfer Activity Analysed - Which players are FPL managers buying and selling?

As shown in the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature, Marmoush is currently the most transferred in player with over 100,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.

Despite two consecutive substitute appearances, Saka is currently the second most transferred-in player with Arsenal's Double Gameweek 33 fixtures in mind. Rogers seems to be the Villa midfielder with most consistent minutes, which has seen over 100,000 FPL managers bring him in. While De Bruyne and Saliba round off the top five.

Kluivert has now missed three consecutive league matches and is the most sold player heading into Gameweek 33. Aina and Gabriel's injuries make them obvious transfers out, while Palmer and Wood are also on the chopping block after disappointing their owners last weekend.

As the below image from the Top 10 Forward transfer combinations shows, Isak to Watkins (27.4%) is by far the most popular transfer combination this Gameweek across all positions. However, Marmoush dominates the other combinations with Wood, Isak, Evnailson, Wissa, Solanke and Beto making way.

The Top 10 Midfield transfer combinations are far more scattered with Palmer to Saka (9.7%) the most popular move by a small margin. The other combinations involve bringing in one of De Bruyne or Rogers, with J. Murphy, Foden, Kluivert, Elanga and Mbeumo on their way out.

The Top 10 Defender transfer combinations are also fairly scattered with the centre-back quartet of Saliba, Gvardiol, Rúben and Konsa popular. Gabriel, Aina, Burn, Kerkez and Digne are the defenders being sold to make way.

Arsenal midfielders - Merino vs Martinelli

The injury to Gabriel has potentially opened up another Arsenal slot for FPL managers alongside Saka, with Merino and Martinelli both popular. As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, both players have played similar minutes over the last five Gameweeks with Merino outscoring Martinelli by 12 FPL points (24 vs 12).

Merino has scored two goals compared to none for Martinelli, but the 'Expected Goals' (xG) figures paint a different picture. The Spanish international has scored two goals from just 0.40 xG, while Martinelli has been unlucky to blank with an xG tally of 1.18.

The Brazilian is also ahead for shots in the box (eight vs 11) and has created more chances as well (two vs seven).

Martinelli could be an intriguing differential for FPL managers for Arsenal's Double Gameweek with just 2.3% FPL ownership at the time of writing.

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