There are still two matches to go in Double Gameweek 33, with Man City, Villa, Palace, and Arsenal yet to play their second fixtures. But we've gone early to highlight the standout performers so far, break down the latest FPL transfer trends, and reveal the must-have players for your squad this week.
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As the below image shows, Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 33 so far with a score of 12.5. The Egyptian international was top amongst all players for shots in the box (seven) and 'big chances' (four), but landed just one attempt on target.
Mbeumo is currently Gameweek 33’s top scorer with 18 FPL points. He was joint-top for attempted assists (seven), took three shots in the box—one of which was classified as a 'big chance' by Opta—and recorded an xFPL score of 10.2. Only Tsimikas (12.1) and Salah (12.5) ranked higher for xFPL.
Watkins reminded FPL managers of his potential with five shots in the box. The England international also created a 'big chance' and posted an xFPL score of 8.8.
Marmoush, a popular captaincy pick going into the weekend, delivered solid underlying numbers. The Egyptian took three shots in the box, including one 'big chance', and attempted two assists, resulting in an xFPL score of 5.6.
Saka’s owners were unfortunate to come away with just one FPL point. The 23-year-old took three shots in the box—one a 'big chance'—and attempted five assists, including one classified as a 'big chance created'. His efforts earned him an xFPL score of 4.3.
What is xFPL?
xFPL is a metric that estimates a player’s expected Fantasy Premier League points based on underlying stats. It combines expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA)—together known as expected goal involvements (xGI)—and expected clean sheets (xCS). These are calculated using data like shot type and location, which determine the likelihood of scoring or assisting. xFPL also factors in appearance and potential bonus points to give a full picture of a player's expected FPL output.
As shown in the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature, Cunha is currently the most transferred in player with over 100,000 FPL managers bringing him in at the time of writing.
Mbeumo’s big haul has made him a hot property, with over 100,000 FPL managers bringing him in. Aït-Nouri, Barnes, and Wood have also seen a rise in transfers after delivering returns over the weekend.
On the flip side, Mateta and Marmoush are among the most transferred-out players, with both set to blank in Gameweek 34 due to FA Cup commitments. Other popular sales include João Pedro—suspended for Brighton—as well as Muñoz and Saka, who also don’t have a fixture this week.
As the below image from the Top 10 Forward transfer combinations shows, Mateta to Cunha (25%) and Marmoush to Cunha (11%) are the most popular transfers across all positions. Wood, Strand Larsen, Evanilson and Wissa are the other popular forwards with the aforementioned duo and Watkins making way.
The Top 10 Midfield transfer combinations are fairly spread out, with the blanking players being sold for Palmer, Mbeumo, Barnes, Luis Díaz and J. Murphy with no single combination over 6%.
The Top 10 Defender transfer combinations are dominated by Aït-Nouri with the Algerian international appearing in four of the top 10 combinations. Robinson, Cucurella, Milenkovic and Virgil are also popular with blanking defenders such as Gvardiol, Saliba, Konsa and Muñoz making way.
Newcastle have one of the standout fixtures in Gameweek 34, facing Ipswich at home. Since the international break, midfield duo Barnes and Murphy have been in top form, racking up a combined 87 points between them.
As the above image from our Player Heatmaps feature shows, Barnes has scored three more FPL points, but crucially he has played 436 minutes compared to just 343 for J. Murphy. This is a significant difference, especially now that Gordon is also available for selection.
Barnes has scored four goals to Jacob Murphy’s three, but his underlying numbers suggest a much greater goal threat. He boasts an expected goals (xG) tally of 3.29—more than double Murphy’s 1.60—and has taken 14 shots in the box compared to Murphy’s four.
However, Barnes has been slightly wasteful, hitting just four shots on target, only one more than Murphy.
In terms of creativity, Murphy has the edge. He’s produced more attempted assists (nine vs six), created more big chances (four vs two), and holds a significantly higher expected assists (xA) figure of 2.42 compared to Barnes’ 0.81.
Despite Murphy’s creative threat, Barnes looks like the better FPL pick, thanks to stronger goal involvement stats and more secure minutes.
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