In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 3's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

B. Fernandes tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 3 with a score of 15.0. The Portuguese international took six shots, two of which were in the box and landed three attempts on target. He also attempted three assists, two of which were ‘big chances’. Cash thrived in a wing-back role with six shots, five of which were inside the box. Two of these attempts were 'big chances' and he notched a huge xFPL score of 14.1. The Gameweek’s top FPL points scorer with 19 points, Sterling, also took five shots in the box (SiB), was afforded two 'big chances' and attempted two assists, leading to an xFPL score of 12.3. No player took more shots (eight) or was afforded more 'big chances' (three) than Haaland, the Norwegian International registered an xFPL score of 10.0 and really should have had a much bigger haul. Gross and Grealish were the two most creative players, with six attempted assists each, the former also landed four shots on target (SoT) but none of these were from inside the penalty area. They registered xFPL scores of 6.6 and 7.0 respectively.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Transfer Activity Analysed

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As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Sterling tops the transfers in this Gameweek with over 400,000 managers bringing the England International in. Chelsea’s right-back Gusto has also seen over 350,000 new managers bring him in after his 14-point haul against Luton in Gameweek 3, he looks to have the spot secure for the short term in R. James’ absence. Maddison got his third attacking return of the season and 300,000 managers have brought him in, with Udogie (217,000) also a popular option. Defenders dominate the transfers out once again with Shaw losing almost 400,000 owners and Gabriel seeing over 200,000 sales. Onana (123,000) and Varane (82,000) are also being sold in droves. Despite two assists against Forest, many of Rashford’s owners have seen enough, with over 150,000 managers have parted ways. Chelsea players account for seven of the top eight transfer combinations this week with Shaw, Martinelli and even B. Fernandes making way for Gusto or Sterling.

Mitoma vs Martinelli

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Martinelli and Mitoma are being sold heavily by FPL managers this week and their numbers are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature to determine which player FPL managers should part with. Mitoma has scored 18 FPL points compared to just 10 for Martinelli. So far, it’s two assists and a goal for the Japanese international versus just the solitary assist for the Brazilian. In terms of underlying numbers, there’s not much to split the two with Martinelli winning out in terms of goal threat for xG (0.73 vs 0.56), shots (seven vs four), SoT (three vs one) and SiB( seven vs four). Mitoma has attempted a whopping 11 assists compared to just two for Martinelli, and has created three big chances compared to none for the Arsenal winger. Mitoma’s numbers are quite encouraging in terms of creativity but Brighton’s fixtures do turn after the international break. Martinelli also might face some rotation once the Champions League kicks off, so it does make sense to sell either of the two given Sterling and Maddison’s short-term fixtures. Based on the above data, selling Martinelli seems to be the right-call, with Mitoma still very much the talisman for Brighton.

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