The first Double Gameweek of the 2023/24 season has been announced with Burnley and Luton playing twice in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Double Gameweek 7. In this blog, the numbers of these two teams from the Championship and the Premier League season so far are analysed, to determine the best picks in defence and in attack.

Evaluate players with Opta statistics.

As the above image shows, Morris tops the Stats Sandbox for xFPL amongst the two promoted teams with a score of 13.73. He has racked up 15 FPL points in three appearances with one goal and an assist, no player from the aforementioned two teams has taken more shots than his nine while only Foster 1.29 has a higher ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) tally than his 1.22. It is worth mentioning that his xG is inflated by the penalty he took against Brighton which accounts for approximately 0.75. He was the Hatters’ top scorer in the Championship last season with 20 goals and is very much their talisman.

Foster only signed for the Clarets in January 2023 and scored one goal in just four starts in the Championship. With the departure of Tella who scored a large chunk of their goals (17), the burden to find the back of the net lies on the South African International and he has started every game so far. In terms of attack, there appears to be very little else to go on from this season, with no other players besides the aforementioned duo notching an xG tally higher than 0.51.

Looking at creativity numbers, Nakamba (five) has attempted the most assists from these two teams, however, Giles’ numbers are worth a closer look. He has attempted a whopping 32 crosses, of which 10 have been successful. He notched 11 assists in the Championship last season for Middlesbrough, only Neto (37) has attempted more crosses across the league. However, it is worth mentioning that despite his high volume of crosses, his Expected Assists (xA) (0.15) is still quite low.

Team Stats

Since Burnley and Luton have both played a game fewer than the rest of the league, averages are used in the Stats Sandbox image above. Luton (1.22) and Burnley (0.96) are ranked in the bottom five for xG per game, they are also in the bottom four for xGC with Luton conceding 2.73 per game and Burnley 2.42. On the basis of these numbers, investment in either teams defence does not seem to be a prudent move long term.

Who has the better Fixtures?

Analyse team’s upcoming fixtures.

As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Luton are ranked sixth for Fixture Difficulty over the next five Gameweeks even with the Double Gameweek 7 fixture removed. Both promoted sides are in the top two when the Gameweek 7 double is included. Luton’s double is better on paper with the additional game being at Everton who have struggled while Burnley travel to Newcastle, who are strong at home. Those looking to get Luton assets can go as early as Gameweek 5 with the Hatters playing Fulham and Wolves (in Gameweek 6 and 7) prior to the double, and the game after is also a home fixture against Tottenham in Gameweek 8, with many likely to wildcard after, during the International break. Burnley are in the bottom three for Fixture Difficulty when the Gameweek 7 double is excluded, with games against Man. Utd., Chelsea and Brentford all looking like stern tests. On the basis of fixtures, Luton look a safer investment for a longer period and those looking for an immediate replacement for the likes of J. Pedro need to look no further than Morris with Luton’s great run.

What do the Projections say?

Use predictive FPL statistics to increase your Gameweek points.

As the above image from our Fix Algorithm shows, looking specifically at the Gameweek 7 projections, Morris (8.2) is projected to outscore Haaland (6.5) and looks like a great captaincy option that week. The Algorithm also backs Luton Goalkeeper, Kaminski, to do well, apart from this, Giles looks like the only other investable asset while Trafford (5.9) is the highest projected scoring player from the Clarets. Looking at the next five Gameweeks, Morris (23.0) is second only to Haaland (34.4) for projected points amongst forwards.