As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 6.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 22nd September, prior to the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Julián Álvarez

• Cost: £6.9m
• Selected by: 24.5%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 23.4

All the talk is about Julián Álvarez (£6.9m) and rightly so. Had we known at the beginning of the season that the Argentinian international would start 449 out of a possible 450 minutes for Manchester City, then we wouldn’t have been able to resist a nailed City attacker for £6.5m! As is often the case with FPL, those who took the chance were handsomely rewarded, while those who feared Pep Roulette were left behind.

With 7 goal involvements in his last 5 Premier League appearances, not to mention a further 2 Champions League goals midweek, there are few players in better form than Álvarez. To further add to his appeal, Pep Guardiola described him as ‘almost undroppable’ – check out the full quote below:

There are words of warning with this pick, however. Manchester City possess the dreaded combination of squad depth and a manager who tends to surprise with unorthodox tactical set ups. He is also notoriously untrustworthy. The last time Pep alluded to a player being ‘undroppable’ it was Nathan Aké (£5.1m) and he went on to suffer three consecutive benchings, despite being fit to play.

Álvarez has put some serious minutes into his legs and with shorter rest periods now a factor, the most transferred in player for Gameweek 6 (Transfer Analytics) could be due his first rest of the season. Whether to take the risk is a judgement call managers need to make.

SELL: Rico Henry

• Cost: £4.6m
• Selected by: 5.2%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0

Owned by over 5% of managers and, according to Live Insight, 11.2% of managers in the Top 100k, Brentford’s Rico Henry (£4.6m) has fallen foul of a dreaded ACL injury and is set to face knee surgery which could see him out for most of the season.

While this is unwelcome news for owners, it comes at a time when Newcastle’s defence looks very appealing. According to the Fixture Planner, only Burnley and Luton have better defensive fixtures than Newcastle between now and Gameweek 10 (and this is only because those are the only two teams who have a double in Gameweek 7). Owners of Henry could be well advised to switch to a Newcastle defender.

KEEP: Ben Chilwell

• Cost: £5.7m
• Selected by: 29.8%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 15.7

The second most transferred out player is Ben Chilwell (£5.7m) with over 300,000 managers having already moved him along. There are arguments for and against this, so let’s go through them:

Why transfer out?

• Cost – At £5.7m, he is one of the most expensive defenders in the game. Downgrading him can release valuable funds elsewhere.
• Form – Chelsea, and by association, Chilwell, have not been in great form recently.
• xMins – In Chelsea’s first five games, Chilwell has been subbed off around the 60-minute mark twice and, in Gameweek 5, did not start as Mykhailo Mudryk (£6.3m) was instead deployed as a winger. Chilwell came on for a 10-minute cameo in which he was booked, disappointing owners with a zero-pointer.

Why keep?

• Fixtures – While a home game to Aston Villa isn’t exactly a piece of cake, the fixtures thereafter (Fulham and Burnley) are much better. For those who are Wildcarding in Gameweek 9 (when Chelsea’s fixtures fall off a cliff), it may be worth persevering until then.
• High points ceiling – We know what Chilwell is capable of. His attacking threat is amongst the most potent when it comes to defenders; goals and assists are always likely. If the stars can align for Chelsea, there’s nothing to say Chilwell can’t enjoy a double-digit haul.
• Mudryk’s performance – While Chilwell’s benching was a shock to the system, it was done so in favour of deploying Mudryk on the left wing. This, it has to be said, was an experiment which didn’t seem to go well. There is a good chance that Pochettino reverts to the usual system.
• Vice-captaincy – It is not impossible, but it would seem highly unorthodox to appoint someone as vice-captain who, so soon after, would no longer be first choice. This therefore counter-balances the xMins argument.

With all the above considered, it may well be worth holding onto Chilwell for one more week.

By Matt Whelan

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