If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.
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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 6 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.
It’s been a mixed start for Crystal Palace, but Roy Hodgson’s team have probably done as well as anticipated. They have won the games you’d expect them to (Sheffield United and Wolves) and have struggled against the better teams (Arsenal, Brentford and Aston Villa).
One thing which can be said is they have been relatively solid at the back. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, they are ranked 7th for shots conceded (62) and 9th for xGC (7.58). In Gameweek 6, they face a Fulham side who have registered fewer shots on target (13) than any other team (bar Luton and Burnley) and are ranked 6th from bottom in terms of xG (6.59).
Joachim Andersen (£4.6m) represents a fairly solid pick at the back. Nailed and defensively strong, he is ranked 5th best amongst defenders for xFPL Points (24.81) which is in line with the actual points he has generated so far this season (24). Andersen also possesses a decent attacking threat for a centre-back. Ranked joint-third for both shots on target (3) and attempted assists (8).
Last season, Pedro Neto (£5.5m) featured in a high proportion of our Gameweek 1 squads. Wolves had great fixtures and Neto had shown plenty of pre-season promise. Unfortunately, Wolves went on to have a difficult campaign and looked toothless in attack, resulting in disappointment for his owners.
This season, however, Neto looks like the player we expected to see last season, despite a relatively difficult opening run of fixtures. No midfielder has attempted more assists (17) than Neto and only Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) can match the Portuguese midfielder for FPL assists (4) so far in this campaign.
With a Gameweek 6 match against Luton, the convergence of form and fixtures could not be clearer. The big decision, of course, is which midfielder makes way.
This pick is more about getting ahead of the curve than embedded in any interpretation of the existing data. After all, 23 minutes against Arsenal, followed by a first start against Brighton – a game in which Manchester United were largely dominated – is hardly a good basis for any sort of meaningful comparison.
That being said, Rasmus Højlund (£7.0m) comes with a great weight of expectation following his £72m move from Atalanta. A pre-season injury delayed Højlund’s start to Manchester United’s campaign but, having been edged slowly in, as his fitness levels are brought up to scratch, the Danish international looks set to start again in Gameweek 6. A midweek goal (and 81 minutes) against Bayern Munich will have done wonders for his confidence and could set the scene for his attacking prospects in the Premier League.
With his first easy fixture against newly promoted Burnley, this could be a great opportunity for Højlund to get on the scoresheet, something which would be a welcome tonic for Manchester United after their difficult start. Beyond this, United’s fixtures are reasonably kind; they are ranked fifth best for attacking potential, according to the Fixture Planner, between now and Gameweek 9.
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