As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 7.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 29th September, prior to the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Kieran Trippier

• Cost: £6.6m
• Selected by: 37.2%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 24.1

In our Gameweek 7 Differential Focus article, we discussed Carlton Morris (£5.5m) as an excellent differential punt. This recommendation, as noted in the article, is very Gameweek 7-centric and may only be appropriate for managers who are planning to Wildcard in Gameweeks 8 or 9 and/or need a Jackson replacement for the immediate future.

If you are looking longer term, then having a Luton player occupying a precious forward spot may not be the best idea. In which case Kieran Trippier (£6.6m) is a more solid option. Trippier’s ownership was high in Gameweek 1, despite Newcastle’s awful run of opening fixtures. His owners had to endure four back-to-back blanks before he returned against Brentford in Gameweek 5.

The nearly 200,000 managers who brought him in for the Sheffield United match in Gameweek 6, will hardly have been able to believe their luck as Trippier picked up 3 assists and a clean sheet, during Newcastle’s 8-0 thrashing of The Blades last weekend.

Riding on the coat tails of that impressive victory, and with an 18-point return in his back pocket, Trippier now faces an extended run of good fixtures which lasts all the way to Gameweek 12, with the Magpies only major challenge in that time a home fixture against Arsenal.

According to Opta Stats Sandbox, no defender has delivered more successful crosses (16) than Trippier. He is also ranked second best for xFPL points (31.74) meaning he is almost bang in line with his actual FPL points total (31). This is a classic case of form and fixtures merging so, if you can stretch to Trippier, then he deserves a spot in your team.

SELL: Nicholas Jackson

• Cost: £6.9m
• Selected by: 7.6%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 15.2

Well, we can’t get them all right! Having backed Nicolas Jackson (£6.9m) for so long, it is time to concede defeat. We, and the 2.1 million managers who owned the Chelsea forward in Gameweek 4, got this one wrong.

With one goal involvement in six Gameweeks, Jackson represents the biggest underperformance in expected data of any player so far this season. Only Erling Haaland (£14.1m) can beat Jackson’s accumulated xG (4.41). Combined with his xA (0.56), Jackson’s expected FPL points are 32.32 compared to his 12 (actual).

As if his blanks weren’t enough, Jackson managed to defy the odds by picking up 5 yellow cards in just 6 games. An impressive feat for any player, particularly a striker! Those 5 yellow cards may be a blessing in disguise for owners who now have an excuse to part ways with this season’s biggest FPL troll.

KEEP: Marcus Rashford

• Cost: £8.9m
• Selected by: 30.0%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 25.6

The fifth-most transferred out player ahead of Gameweek 7, is Marcus Rashford (£8.9m). According to Transfer Analytics, over 300,000 managers have transferred him out already, over 40% of whom have switched to Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

But for owners of Rashford who have played their Wildcard (or are not planning to play it in the near future), the Manchester United winger may be a good player to keep. While managers will no doubt be frustrated by his lack of returns this season, the underlying data shows that he is up there in terms of performances.

Rashford is joint-second for total shots (26) and has an xG of 3.12. He is also about to embark on a decent run of fixtures. With a home game against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 7, Manchester United’s kind run continues all the way to Gameweek 13, with only a derby clash against rivals Manchester City to challenge them in that time.

By Matt Whelan

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