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Top 5 FPL Differentials for Gameweek 7

Fantasy Football Fix 3 Oct. 2024

Top 5 FPL Differentials for Gameweek 7: Uncovering 2024/25 Hidden Gems

As we approach Gameweek 7 in the 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League season, savvy managers are always on the lookout for those hidden gems that can give their team the edge.

Today, we're diving into the top 5 differentials that could make a significant impact on your FPL performance.

Selection Rules:

  • 3 attackers (midfielders or forwards)
  • 2 defensive players (goalkeeper or defenders)
  • All players are under 10% ownership

Let's explore these potential game-changers!


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#1 Jarrod Bowen- The Reliable Hammer

  • Position: Midfielder
  • Cost: £7.4m
  • Projected Points for GW7: 4.9

Bowen has been quietly impressive for West Ham this season, earning 24 points in 6 games (518 minutes). So far, he’s contributed one goal and two FPL assists.

Jarrod Bowen attempted assists and shots for the 2024/25 season

The midfielder has made 14 assist attempts—more than any other West Ham player—and taken 7 shots inside the box, as shown in the Opta Player Heatmaps. His expected goals (xG) of 0.71 and expected assists (xA) of 1.29 suggest there’s potential for more returns.

West Ham’s next match is at home against newly-promoted Ipswich Town, who have conceded 1.67 goals and 2.08 expected goals per game. This creates a prime opportunity for Bowen, owned by just 5.5% of managers, to be a key differential in breaking down Ipswich’s defense.

#2 Gabriel Martinelli - Brillant Brazilian

  • Position: Midfielder
  • Cost: £6.9m
  • Projected Points for GW7: 4.6

Arsenal's Brazilian winger, Martinelli, has been in excellent form, accumulating 28 points across 6 games (412 minutes). He has registered one goal and two assists, supported by solid underlying stats of 1.11 xG and 1.80 xA.

Arsenal midfielders FPL stats

Martinelli has also created three big chances, averaging 0.5 per game—second only to Saka (1.5) among Arsenal players, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox, underlining his creative impact.

In Gameweek 7, Arsenal face Southampton at home, a team that has yet to keep a clean sheet. Only Wolves (16) and Leicester (15) have conceded more goals, offering Martinelli a prime opportunity to add to his tally. With just 3.4% ownership, he could be a pivotal differential against the Saints.

#3 Kyle Walker - City Cover

  • Position: Defender
  • Cost: £5.3m
  • Projected Points for GW7: 4.2

Manchester City's reliable defender, Kyle Walker, offers a budget-friendly option into Pep Guardiola's backline. Though he’s had a slow start with just 6 points from 4 games (260 minutes), his attacking potential shouldn’t be ignored. Walker has created one big chance, has an xA of 0.24, and has taken 2 shots on target—only Gvardiol (4) has more among City defenders.

Clean sheets probablity for Premier League teams in Gameweek 7

City’s next game is at home against Fulham, presenting a strong chance for both attacking returns and a clean sheet. With a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet - as shown in the Predicted Points & Stats tool - second only to Arsenal (60%), Walker is a smart differential pick, especially with just 5% ownership.

#4 Stephy Mavididi - Ultra Differential

  • Position: Midfielder
  • Cost: £5.3m
  • Projected Points for GW7: 4.0

Leicester City's Mavididi has been turning heads since the Foxes’ return to the Premier League. With 22 points in 6 games (303 minutes), including two goals, he's proving to be great value. His xG of 1.34 indicates that his goal-scoring form is sustainable.

Premier League fixtures ranked by attacking difficulty

Leicester’s Gameweek 7 fixture is at home against Bournemouth, who are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Following this, Leicester enjoys a favorable run of fixtures, with the Fixture Planner ranking them third for attacking fixture difficulty over the next three gameweeks, making Mavididi a long-term option.

Owned by just 0.8% of managers, he could be the ultimate differential for those looking to capitalise on Leicester's fixtures.

#5 Riccardo Calafiori - Best Arsenal Defender?

  • Position: Defender
  • Cost: £5.8m
  • Projected Points for GW7: 3.9

Arsenal's Calafiori has made a strong impact since arriving in the Premier League. In 4 games (206 minutes), he’s earned 11 points, including a goal, showcasing his attacking threat from defence. With an xG of 0.42, his offensive potential is impressive for a defender.

Arsenal defenders' FPL stats for the 2024/25 season

When comparing Calafiori’s stats to other Arsenal defenders on a per-game basis in the Fix Comparison Matrix tool, he ranks joint top for goals (0.3) alongside Gabriel and leads in shots on target (1). Timber stands out for creativity with 1.3 attempted assists and 0.2 FPL assists per game.

Arsenal's Gameweek 7 fixture at home against Southampton presents a solid opportunity for both attacking returns and a clean sheet. With just 1.9% ownership, Calafiori could be a brilliant differential in Arsenal’s defense.

Gameweek 7 Differential Conclusion

In conclusion, these five differentials offer exciting opportunities for FPL managers looking to gain an edge. From Bowen's consistent threat against newly-promoted Ipswich to Mavididi's form in Leicester's return to the top flight, each player brings something unique to the table. As always, consider your overall team structure and upcoming fixtures when making transfers.


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