As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 8.

Caveat: this article was written on Friday 6th October prior to the Premier League press conferences

BUY: Son Heung-min

• Cost: £9.4m
• Selected by: 28.6%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 28.2

After a slow start to the season, Son Heung-min (£9.4m) has exploded back onto the scene. His price drop from £12m (in the 2022/23 season) to £9m this season was significant and, up until Gameweek 4 it seemed justified, as Son adapted to life under Ange Postecoglou.

But a positional change against Burnley yielded instant results with the South Korean bagging 20-points following a hat trick against newly promoted Burnley. A blank against Sheffield United was disappointing for his new owners, but those who stuck with him were rewarded with three goals in two tricky fixtures against Liverpool and Arsenal.

Now the scene is set for another points explosion. Spurs, undefeated and with five wins in the campaign, visit Luton Town. While Luton are arguably the poorest team to come up from the Championship in a while, their defensive stats do not make for quite as bad reading as you would expect. In fact, according to Opta Stats Sandbox, West Ham (15.37) has conceded more xG than Luton (15.03) so far this season, and Brighton (14) have conceded as many goals. It is worth pointing out, however, that Luton’s fixtures have been on the more generous side so far.

Irrespective of the stats, you would expect Spurs to win the game comfortably and if Son can return against top four opponents, then he could get a handful against a newly promoted side. Not only is Son a good transfer move this Gameweek, he is possibly the best captaincy option too.

SELL: Pervis Estupiñán

• Cost: £5.2m
• Selected by: 51.0%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 13.9

On the back of a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Aston Villa, Brighton’s fortunes have gone from bad to worse, with news that Pervis Estupiñán (£5.2m) is set to be sidelined with injury for as long as a month, when he picked up a muscular issue earlier in the week.

With a parting gift of -2 points for his owners, following an own goal against Villa, the Ecuadorian international now leaves a sizeable hole in the squads of over half of all FPL players. See below – from our Player Points Projections tool – the top five rated defensive replacements for Estupiñán (under £5m).

KEEP: Bruno Fernandes

• Cost: £8.4m
• Selected by: 18.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 24.7

According to Transfer Analytics, over 230,000 managers have already parted ways with Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m), with the majority (28%) making the switch to Son. While we agree with the incoming target, it may be better to find a different out-going player (if possible).

Fernandes is ranked as sixth-best for xFPL points (43.04) and second for attempted assists (21). Of course, it is not just the quantity of his passes, but the quality of them that is important; once again, Bruno’s underlying data shows that he is doing everything right, ranked second for xA (3.32). In addition, he has had 22 shots – as many as Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) – and is only beaten by two players for final 1/3 passes (181).

Once again, Fernandes looks to be a points explosion waiting to happen. With fixtures against Brentford, Sheffield United, Fulham, and Luton in the next five Gameweeks, selling Fernandes could be a big mistake.

By Matt Whelan

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