Seven gameweeks into the 2024/25 Premier League season, this blog takes a closer look at the top-performing forwards in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Yesterday, we analysed the top-performing midfielders.
With Haaland the only forward above £10m, this blog will compare forwards in the below price brackets:
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The below image from our Fix Comparison Matrix shows the statistics for five of the six forward options in the aforementioned price bracket. Isak is not included with his fitness doubts. Averages are used since Solanke has played two games fewer due to injury.
Despite blanks in his last two appearances, Haaland remains the joint-top scoring FPL asset with 67 FPL points, alongside Palmer. As expected, the Norwegian international tops most of the stats in the comparison - FPL points (9.6), goals (1.4), shots (5.0), shots on target (3.3), 'Expected Goals' (xG) (0.9) and 'big chances' (1.4).
After a slow start to the season, Watkins has found the back of the net four times (second) but his shot volume (2.3) (fourth) has been quite poor. He is still testing the keeper with a high proportion of this attempts as shown by his nine shots on target, while he is joint-top for 'big chances' (1.4) alongside Haaland. Unlike the Norwegian international, he has multiple routes to points with 1.0 attempted assists (first) and two 'big chances' created.
Jackson's minutes played per game are the lowest in the comparison (75.4), with the Senegalese international often substituted early due to Chelsea's immense squad depth. He has averaged a healthy 6.0 FPL points (second), with no forward in the comparison averaging more assists per game (0.4). This is backed up by his underlying creativity numbers with no forward in the comparison creating more 'big chances' per game (0.4).
Havertz has established himself as one of Arteta's key players, as shown by his 90 minutes played every game this season. The German international has averaged 5.7 FPL points per appearance (fourth) and his shot volume (3.6) is second only to Haaland (5.0). He is also second behind the Norwegian international (0.9) for xG (0.8).
Solanke's average of 4.2 FPL points per game is the lowest in the comparison, but the forward finally looks to be finding his feet at Spurs. He has averaged 2.6 shots per game and is second for shots on target (1.8) only to Haaland (3.3), while no player in the comparison has averaged more 'big chances' (1.6) per game.
As the above image from our Fixture Difficulty Ratings feature shows, Spurs are top for 'Attack Difficulty' over the next four Gameweeks with home matchups against West Ham, Villa and Ipswich.
Man. City are in second with Brentford, Chelsea and Leicester visiting the Etihad over the next four Gameweeks. This would indicate that Solanke and Haaland are both excellent picks over this period.
Meanwhile, Chelsea are ranked 20th with Liverpool, Newcastle, Man. Utd. and Arsenal in the next four. The Gunners are themselves ranked in 18th with Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea after Bournemouth. While Palmer and Saka might be good picks over this run, there is perhaps more value in the budget forwards than Jackson or Havertz in the short-term.
As the above image from our Opta Stats Sandbox feature shows, Wood is top for xFPL (37.63) amongst forwards under £7.5m with only Welbeck (41) scoring more FPL points than his 39.
Welbeck is top for shots in the box (15) amongst forwards in this price bracket, with Calvert-Lewin, Raúl and Cunha close behind with 14 each.
However, when looking at xG, Wood (3.09) comes out on top as six of his 12 shots in the box have been classified as 'big chances'. Despite just four appearances, Wissa is second (2.91) and Welbeck is third (2.89).
Calvert-Lewin is joint-top alongside Wood for 'big chances' (six) but the Everton forward has tested the keeper with only six of his 15 attempts.
Archer's numbers make for interesting reading, especially given his price tag of just £5.0m. In just 280 minutes, he has taken eight shots in the box, five of which were classified as 'big chances' (third) and he is also third for xG (2.68).
Despite being the most creative budget forward with 10 attempted assists and three 'big chances' created, Cunha is yet to register a FPL assist. Raúl has created the same number of chances as the Brazilian international and is top for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (2.11), illustrating his multiple routes to points.
Welbeck is second for attempted assists (eight) and with his great goal threat numbers, the 33-year-old looks an excellent pick if he can sustain his fitness.
Gakpo has impressed when he's got the opportunity, the Dutch international is joint-second for attempted assists (eight) and fourth for xA (1.06).
As the above image from our Player Points Projections feature shows, Wood (18.9) is projected to be the top scoring budget forward with Calvert-Lewin (16.1) and Vardy (15.7) close behind. These three look to be by some distance the best budget forward options.
Welbeck's (14.0) projection is affected by his fixtures, with the Seagulls playing Newcastle, Liverpool and Man. City over the next four Gameweeks.
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