In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 7's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

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xFPL review

Doughty tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 7 with a score of 11.7. The fullback attempted a whopping 13 assists, more than any other player and two of these were classified as ‘big chances’ (BC) created. The Gameweek’s top FPL points scorer with 23 points, Watkins took six shots, two of which were BC and attempted five assists. His xFPL score of 10.4 indicates the massive haul was a bit fortuitous as none of the chances he created were deemed BC. Ward-Prowse once again put his hand up as a budget option, he was top for ‘Expected Asissts’ (xA) (0.9) and second for chances created (six), with an xFPL score of 6.7. Isak was top for BC (three) and joint-top for shots (five). The Swedish international notched an xFPL score of 9.2 and could be a good pick with doubts around C. Wilson’s fitness.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

Evaluate transfer analytics to see which players are popular with other managers.

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Watkins and Son dominate the Top Transfers ‘in’ this gameweek with the duo seeing over 500,000 transfers each. Cash and Trippier are also popular with many managers having injuries in defence. Rashford, Estupinan and Chilwell have been sold by approximately 300,000 managers each, the trio were all popular picks in Gameweek 1 and managers appear to have finally lost patience. Injury doubts around Saka have also seen him sold by nearly 200,000 managers. Watkins accounts for eight of the top 10 forward combinations with Morris, Alvarez, Wissa and even Haaland making way. In midfield, Son accounts for four of the top five transfer combinations but Salah appears to be quite popular as well, making it to three of the top 10. Cash accounts for three of the top five defender transfer combinations with the Newcastle duo of Burn and Trippier also very popular.

Watkins vs Alvarez

Villa embark on a brilliant run of fixtures while Man. City are entering a tricky run which has many managers considering moving the Argentinian international on for Watkins. As the above imagesfrom our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, Watkins has averaged 7.7 points per game compared to 6.6 for Alvarez but a large chunk of the former’s points came in the last fixture against Brighton. In terms of underlying numbers, Watkins has displayed significantly more goal threat with 3.95 ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) compared to 2.39 for Alvarez. Although they have taken a similar number of shots (23 vs 22), Watkins has taken 22 shots in the box compared to just 12 for the Argentinian international. The Villa forward wins out for creativity as well with 1.64 xA vs 1.57 for Alvarez, even though the latter has created more chances (15 vs 19). As the below image from our Fixture Planner shows, Villa’s run of fixtures for the next six Gameweeks is worth investing in and Watkins should be a great pick for managers to differentiate from the highly owned Alvarez.

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