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FPL Gameweek 9: Aston Villa Deep Dive

Fantasy Football Fix 13 Oct. 2023

Villa are flying high under Emery and sit fifth in the Premier League table with 10 points in their last five matches. In this blog, their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets are compared across positions to determine the best options going forward.


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As the above image from our Fixture Planner shows, Villa are ranked top for Fixture Difficulty over the next six gameweeks with games gainst Luton, Fulham and Bournemouth looking great for FPL returns at both ends of the pitch. Only Newcastle (20) and Brighton (21) have scored more goals (19) than the Midlands side while no team has scored more goals on home turf than their 13. However, they have kept only two clean sheets in their first eight matches and are ranked 12th for 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC) (13.07)

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As expected, Watkins is top of the Stats Sandbox image above for xFPL (44.74) but it is a bit of a surprise to see Cash (44.71) so close with 17 FPL points fewer. The Villa forward's numbers are impressive, he has notched 11 attacking returns (four goals, seven assists) and has taken a whopping 25 shots in eight matches, only Haaland (32) has attempted more amongst forwards. Meanwhile, only Alvarez (19) has attempted more assists than his 16.

In midfield, Diaby (38.78) and D. Luiz (35.35) stand out. The Frenchman has superior underlying numbers with 12 attempted assists compared to the Brazilian's seven and he also wins out for BC created (five vs one). However, D. Luiz does have penalty duties in his locker and is significantly cheaper at just £5.4m compared to £6.7m for Diaby. The Frenchman does offer significant goal threat as well with 13 shots in the box (SiB) compared to just six for D. Luiz.

In defence, both Cash and Digne catch the eye with the right-back boasting more goal threat while the left-back has been more creative. Only Watkins (16) has attempted more assists than Digne and the Frenchman has already notched three FPL assists. Cash's 13 SiB is top amongst all defenders and the 26-year-old is also top for xG (2.48). Pau scored in their last game but does not offer significant goal threat otherwise with just 0.65 xG in eight appearances. Martinez' price tag of £4.9m means that there are probably better options in the Villa defence with more upside.

What do the Projections say?

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As the above image from the Fix Algorithm shows, Cash (23.5) is projected to be the fourth highest scoring defender at 5.0m or under over the next six Gameweeks with Digne (21.9) and Pau (21.5) close behind. Meanwhile, Martinez (25.1) is projected to be the second highest scoring goalkeeper. Based on these numbers, it looks wise to spend the extra money on Cash but Digne and Pau also appear to be viable options.

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Diaby (26.2) is the third highest projected scoring midfielder at 7.0m or under over the next six gameweeks but D. Luiz (23.8) is not far behind with a significantly cheaper price tag. The Brazilian international is projected to outscore the likes of Ward-Prowse and Almiron who are far more popular.

Watkins (29.9) is second only to Haaland (40.5) amongst forwards, the England international is possibly a captaincy option at home to Luton in Gameweek 10 and is projected to outscore Alvarez (22.1) significantly over the aforementioned period.

Based on the above analysis the three best picks from Villa appear to be Cash, Diaby and Watkins but the likes of Digne, Pau and D. Luiz can still be considered if FPL managers are tight for funds.


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