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FPL Gameweek 37: Who To Target?

Fantasy Football Fix 7 May 2024

In this blog, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 36's numbers are analysed to determine the best players and teams to target going forward.

xFPL review

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Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 36 with a score of 14.9. The Norwegian international took more shots (eight) than any other player over the weekend and was also top for 'big chances' (BC) (four). N. Jackson was not too far behind with seven shots in the box (SiB), the 22-year-old converted both his BC and notched an xFPL score of 11.0. Madueke looks like an interesting differential for Chelsea's double in Gameweek 37, the winger was joint-top for attempted assists (six), took six SiB and landed four SoT en route to an xFPL score of 10.8. Brighton assets are going under the radar ahead of their double Gameweek and those in the market for a forward can consider João Pedro, the 22-year-old notched an xFPL score of 10.5 (sixth), he took four SiB, was afforded three BC and should still be on penalty duties despite his miss.

What is xFPL?

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xCS). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

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As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Double Gameweek assets are in vogue with Haaland, N. Jackson and Gvardiol the top three transfers in this week. Despite his 13-point-haul, Salah is the fourth most sold player with Schär, Watkins and Solanke also being sold in droves. Defensive injuries are the theme of the week with Schär and Maguire ruled out, a look at the top 10 defender transfer combinations indicates that FPL managers appear to be favouring Burn, Gvardiol, Porro and Cucurella as their replacements. In midfield, selling Saka or Salah for Son, Foden, De Bruyne or Gordon is the popular trend. Up top, N. Jackson and Haaland occupy nine of the top 10 forward transfer combinations.

Madueke vs Gallagher

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Madueke and Gallagher have both been in the points recently for Chelsea, and as the above image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows. The former has racked up 45 FPL points at an average of 6.4 points per game, compared to the latter's 40 despite fewer minutes.

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As the statistics above show, although both players have scored the same number of goals (three), Madueke is ahead for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (1.71 vs 1.37), shots (18 vs 10), SoT (eight vs three) and SiB (12 vs five). He also the edge creatively, although their chance creation numbers are similar (12 vs 11), Madueke's 'Expected Assists' (xA) (1.65 vs 0.76) are significantly better. The winger has now started each of the last six games for Chelsea and looks like a great differential pick for the run in.

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